Europe

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan speaking at a podium with Turkish and Israeli flags in the background.

The Iran War Is Handing Turkey a Regional Opportunity It Did Not Ask For

June 6, 2026

The aftermath of the US-Iran conflict has unexpectedly positioned Turkey as a central player in regional security and trade. By leveraging its growing defense industry and anchoring vital alternative trade corridors like the Iraq Development Road, Ankara is capitalizing on Gulf states’ desires for strategic autonomy. This post analyzes how Turkey’s diplomatic maneuvering and new regional alignments, including the emerging Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi-Egypt quartet, are reshaping the Middle Eastern economic and geopolitical landscape.

A person waving a Russian flag in front of Saint Basil's Cathedral in Moscow.

The West Keeps Predicting Russia’s Collapse and Keeps Getting It Wrong

June 3, 2026

This analysis examines the persistent failure of Western analytical frameworks to accurately predict Russia’s stability. By examining the impact of the “knowledge iron curtain” that has severed direct research ties, the structural biases within exiled opposition discourse, and the ideological blind spots regarding authoritarian functionality, we argue that the “collapse narrative” is actively distorting Western policy. This report challenges the assumption that Russia’s ongoing economic and military stresses must inevitably lead to systemic breakdown, urging a shift toward empirical observation and a more nuanced understanding of how Moscow continues to adapt under pressure.

A wide view of a G20 summit conference hall featuring flags and representatives from various nations.

The Case for a Third Economic Pole Without the US or China

June 3, 2026

This analysis examines the recent Chatham House report, Saving global economic governance from the ‘Trump shock’, which advocates for the creation of a “third economic pole” in the global financial system. As the U.S. and China increasingly weaponize economic policy and dismantle multilateral institutions, the report argues that market-oriented middle powers must move beyond ad-hoc “variable geometry” coalitions. By establishing a standing alliance between the European Union and the 12 CPTPP member states, these nations could create a stable, rules-based trade bloc large enough to maintain economic openness and resilience independently of the two competing hegemons.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan walking through a crowded assembly hall.

Turkey Is Building the Military Network Iran Could Never Assemble

June 2, 2026

This analysis examines Turkey’s ambitious regional military strategy as demonstrated at the EFES-2026 exercise. By hosting troops from across North Africa and the Levant—including previously fractured Libyan factions and Syria’s newly reconstituted army—Ankara is moving beyond the proxy-based influence models of the past. We explore how Turkey is leveraging its institutional legitimacy and NATO status to formalize a durable military network, effectively creating a new strategic reality in the Middle East that challenges Israeli security planning and reshapes the regional balance of power.

A Ukrainian soldier covering his ears near a heavy artillery piece during combat.

Ukraine’s Grinding War Is Slowly Turning Against Russia

June 1, 2026

As of June 1, 2026, the war in Ukraine is characterized by intensified aerial bombardment and long-range drone strikes, deepening the cycle of destruction. With diplomatic efforts stalled and both Moscow and Kyiv prioritizing battlefield gains over concessions, the conflict has settled into a high-intensity stalemate. This report examines the current military landscape, the impact of mid-range strike campaigns on logistics, and the growing divide between U.S.-led pressure for a swift resolution and the European commitment to a sustained, deterrence-based approach to Russian aggression.

Vladimir Putin sitting in a chair in front of the Russian and Kazakhstani flags.

Russia’s Post-Soviet Grip Is Fracturing — but Not Collapsing

June 1, 2026

The parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, 2026, represent a critical turning point for Armenia’s political and strategic landscape. As the country navigates complex security challenges and fragile peace negotiations with Azerbaijan, these elections serve as a de facto referendum on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s agenda and Armenia’s future orientation. This report examines the intense domestic polarization, the ongoing tensions in relations with Moscow, and the broader implications of this vote for Armenia’s path toward European integration and regional stability in the South Caucasus.

European Union flags flying outside the European Commission building in Brussels.

EU’s Chinese Tech Purge Is Costly, Contradictory, and Politically Driven

June 1, 2026

This analysis evaluates the European Commission’s 2026 Cybersecurity Act revisions, which aim to exclude high-risk third-country suppliers from critical networks. We explore the tension between Brussels’ pursuit of digital sovereignty and the economic realities of replacing deeply embedded Chinese technology. By questioning the shift toward origin-based blacklisting rather than universal security auditing, we assess the potential for retaliatory trade measures and long-term instability in EU-China relations.

A soldier in camouflage kneeling on a dirt path while operating a drone controller, with a military tank nearby.

Why Europe Should Cofinance US Defense Enablers

May 27, 2026

This analysis argues for a structured cofinancing model between Europe and the United States to address persistent shortfalls in high-end military enablers, such as secure command networks and advanced intelligence. By formalizing these investments, allies can maintain credible deterrence against regional threats while optimizing resources across a multipolar global landscape.

French President Emmanuel Macron standing in a formal room, flanked by partially visible flags, during a diplomatic engagement.

Macron’s Africa Reset Encounters Resistance

May 27, 2026

This analysis explores the challenges facing President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to redefine France’s relationship with Africa. By examining recent diplomatic friction, the rise of alternative security and economic partnerships with Russia and China, and the limitations of French reform proposals, we assess the necessity for a more transactional and egalitarian approach to engagement.

European political leaders walking and conversing during a diplomatic meeting regarding maritime navigation.

Western Leaders Are Losing the Public

May 26, 2026

This report analyzes the deepening crisis of legitimacy facing leaders across the G7 nations in May 2026. By examining the collapse in approval ratings for figures such as Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Donald Trump, the article explores the common threads of public dissatisfaction—specifically the erosion of the social contract driven by persistent inflation, stagnant growth, and unaffordable living costs. With local election results in Britain signaling a major fragmentation of the traditional two-party system and similar trends emerging elsewhere, the piece evaluates whether these record-low ratings represent a temporary protest or a fundamental unraveling of the post-war political consensus.

Miniature figures standing on puzzle pieces representing the flags of China and the European Union.

Europe’s China Trade War Temptation Is a Trap of Its Own Making

May 26, 2026

This analysis explores the intensifying debate within the European Union regarding its trade policy toward China. With a 2025 trade deficit of €359.8 billion serving as a focal point, the article examines the push by a five-nation coalition—led by France and others—for more aggressive protectionist measures. By contrasting these calls for tariffs with warnings from experts like Rolf Langhammer about structural competitiveness, the report assesses whether Brussels is prioritizing genuine industrial strategy or simply reacting to competitive panic. The piece further contextualizes the EU’s internal challenges, such as high energy costs and fragmented regulation, arguing that trade barriers may fail to address the root causes of Europe’s weakening industrial position.

Alternating flags of China and Russia displayed at a summit.

Xi and Putin Unite Against Golden Dome at Beijing Summit

May 20, 2026

This analysis explores the strategic consolidation between Moscow and Beijing during the recent Beijing summit, where both leaders condemned the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative. As energy ties deepen—driven by the disruptions of the ongoing Iran war—we examine how this anti-hegemonic alignment seeks to reshape the global security architecture while highlighting the growing structural asymmetry of the Russia-China relationship.

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Category: Europe

The Iran War Is Handing Turkey a Regional Opportunity It Did Not Ask For

The West Keeps Predicting Russia’s Collapse and Keeps Getting It Wrong

The Case for a Third Economic Pole Without the US or China

Turkey Is Building the Military Network Iran Could Never Assemble

Ukraine’s Grinding War Is Slowly Turning Against Russia

Russia’s Post-Soviet Grip Is Fracturing — but Not Collapsing

EU’s Chinese Tech Purge Is Costly, Contradictory, and Politically Driven

Why Europe Should Cofinance US Defense Enablers

Macron’s Africa Reset Encounters Resistance

Europe’s China Trade War Temptation Is a Trap of Its Own Making

Xi and Putin Unite Against Golden Dome at Beijing Summit

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