Category: Russia

A symbolic scarecrow wearing a nuclear radiation hazard helmet with crows circling.

Nuclear Deterrence Is Failing — and the World Has Not Yet Noticed

This article evaluates the weakening credibility of traditional nuclear deterrence in the face of modern hybrid warfare and proliferating conventional technologies. By analyzing recent conflicts—such as drone strikes on strategic assets—we explore why nuclear-armed states are increasingly vulnerable to non-nuclear attacks. The piece argues that instead of pursuing further proliferation, the global security focus must shift toward “deterrence by denial,” cost-effective missile defense, and strengthening the international nuclear taboo to prevent escalation in an increasingly volatile landscape.

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A person waving a Russian flag in front of Saint Basil's Cathedral in Moscow.

The West Keeps Predicting Russia’s Collapse and Keeps Getting It Wrong

This analysis examines the persistent failure of Western analytical frameworks to accurately predict Russia’s stability. By examining the impact of the “knowledge iron curtain” that has severed direct research ties, the structural biases within exiled opposition discourse, and the ideological blind spots regarding authoritarian functionality, we argue that the “collapse narrative” is actively distorting Western policy. This report challenges the assumption that Russia’s ongoing economic and military stresses must inevitably lead to systemic breakdown, urging a shift toward empirical observation and a more nuanced understanding of how Moscow continues to adapt under pressure.

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A Ukrainian soldier covering his ears near a heavy artillery piece during combat.

Ukraine’s Grinding War Is Slowly Turning Against Russia

As of June 1, 2026, the war in Ukraine is characterized by intensified aerial bombardment and long-range drone strikes, deepening the cycle of destruction. With diplomatic efforts stalled and both Moscow and Kyiv prioritizing battlefield gains over concessions, the conflict has settled into a high-intensity stalemate. This report examines the current military landscape, the impact of mid-range strike campaigns on logistics, and the growing divide between U.S.-led pressure for a swift resolution and the European commitment to a sustained, deterrence-based approach to Russian aggression.

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Vladimir Putin sitting in a chair in front of the Russian and Kazakhstani flags.

Russia’s Post-Soviet Grip Is Fracturing — but Not Collapsing

The parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, 2026, represent a critical turning point for Armenia’s political and strategic landscape. As the country navigates complex security challenges and fragile peace negotiations with Azerbaijan, these elections serve as a de facto referendum on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s agenda and Armenia’s future orientation. This report examines the intense domestic polarization, the ongoing tensions in relations with Moscow, and the broader implications of this vote for Armenia’s path toward European integration and regional stability in the South Caucasus.

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A soldier in camouflage kneeling on a dirt path while operating a drone controller, with a military tank nearby.

Why Europe Should Cofinance US Defense Enablers

This analysis argues for a structured cofinancing model between Europe and the United States to address persistent shortfalls in high-end military enablers, such as secure command networks and advanced intelligence. By formalizing these investments, allies can maintain credible deterrence against regional threats while optimizing resources across a multipolar global landscape.

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Alternating flags of China and Russia displayed at a summit.

Xi and Putin Unite Against Golden Dome at Beijing Summit

This analysis explores the strategic consolidation between Moscow and Beijing during the recent Beijing summit, where both leaders condemned the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative. As energy ties deepen—driven by the disruptions of the ongoing Iran war—we examine how this anti-hegemonic alignment seeks to reshape the global security architecture while highlighting the growing structural asymmetry of the Russia-China relationship.

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Vladimir Putin speaking at a podium with Russian and Chinese flags in the background.

Why US Pressure Keeps Pushing Moscow and Beijing Closer

This analysis explores the resilience of the Sino-Russian partnership, arguing that Western pressure has inadvertently solidified their cooperation. By examining the shift from ideological alignment to a partnership built on shared threats—and analyzing the failure of recent U.S. “wedge strategies”—we highlight why Moscow and Beijing view their collaboration as an indispensable strategic necessity, even amidst growing economic asymmetries and localized frictions.

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Small desktop flags of Russia and China standing crossed against a soft, light-colored background.

Putin’s 25th Visit to China Tests Beijing’s Balancing Act

This article analyzes Vladimir Putin’s 25th presidential visit to China, arriving immediately after Donald Trump’s departure from Beijing. While the leaders target energy deals like the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, the summit highlights China’s strategic tightrope walk as an indispensable power broker managing ties with both Washington and Moscow.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping speaking at a podium during the Beijing Summit with a prominent orange background displaying Beijing China.

Beijing’s Double Summit Rewrites the Power Triangle

This analysis explores the geopolitical significance of Xi Jinping hosting the American and Russian presidents back-to-back in Beijing. Breaking from historical Cold War dynamics, China now occupies the center of this unequal power triangle, balancing massive Western commercial ties with an existential energy partnership with a sanctioned, anxious Moscow.

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Vladimir Putin walking past a line of Russian military guards in uniform.

Trump’s America Foils Putin’s Global Strategy

The return of Donald Trump has disrupted Vladimir Putin’s long-term global strategy by devaluing the international institutions where Russia holds formal power. As Washington pivots to parallel mechanisms and unilateral action, Moscow finds its traditional diplomatic leverage weakened, forcing the Kremlin to recalibrate its influence amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

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Karaganov’s Nuclear Gambit: Russia’s Hawkish Voice Grows Louder

Sergey Karaganov is intensifying his call for a radical overhaul of Russia’s nuclear strategy following the expiration of the New START treaty. His May 2026 proposals advocate for offensive deterrence, resumed nuclear testing, and targeting European centers, reflecting a dangerous shift in Moscow’s rhetoric toward global escalation and strategic compellence.

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Portrait montage of world leaders Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Donald Trump.

Why Grand Bargains Elude Washington, Beijing and Moscow

High-level summits in Beijing between leaders of the U.S., China, and Russia highlight a new era of strategic distrust. As interdependence fades, these powers are prioritizing economic resilience and flexible, time-limited understandings over comprehensive global accords. This shift reflects a broader trend toward a fragmented, multipolar world defined by competition rather than shared rules.

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