Trump’s war with Iran is undermining the very tools that once made him politically untouchable — his ability to define reality, wield leverage, and unify his party — as rising oil prices, stalled military objectives, and growing Republican fractures expose limits he can’t spin away.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global crisis extending beyond oil, paralyzing a third of the world’s fertilizer trade and threatening desalination plants critical for drinking water. This disruption risks long-term food inflation, compromised harvests, and severe economic strain on millions far from the conflict.
As the war on Iran enters its fourth week, America’s anti-war movement faces a critical class divide. To succeed, organizers must bridge the gap between urban activists and the working-class families bearing the economic and human costs, building a diverse coalition capable of challenging the powerful defense industry.
President Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum, threatening to strike Iran’s power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. This escalation follows a massive spike in global energy prices and retaliatory threats from Tehran to destroy regional infrastructure, leaving little room for diplomatic off-ramps as the deadline approaches.
China counters Trump’s pressure by sending humanitarian aid to Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan, using relief diplomacy to project responsibility while avoiding U.S. demands for military help, as the collapsed Beijing summit underscores Washington’s isolation and Beijing’s strategy of patience, neutrality, and quiet leverage.
China faces its worst energy crisis in decades as the Hormuz shutdown slashes oil supplies, leaving Beijing unable to back the U.S., unwilling to abandon Iran, and scrambling for alternatives while the war exposes its strategic vulnerabilities and accelerates its push toward energy independence.
Allies refuse to join Trump’s war after years of insults and broken trust, leaving the U.S. isolated in a crisis he created and unable to rally partners who see no benefit in helping a president who never rewards loyalty.
Iran’s regime, built for crisis and sustained by the IRGC’s deep entrenchment, can absorb U.S. and Israeli strikes without collapsing; external pressure only hardens its resolve, ensuring the conflict shifts into prolonged asymmetric retaliation rather than surrender, leaving Washington facing an adversary it cannot defeat or coerce into ending the war.
Japan’s first female prime minister faces U.S. pressure to send minesweepers to Hormuz, trapped between constitutional limits, domestic opposition, and economic vulnerability as rising oil prices and shifting U.S. military focus leave Tokyo with no good options.
Clausewitz warned that once large-scale military operations begin, war tends to generate its own momentum — “each act of force produces a new situation which
Iran claims the U.S. and Israel are staging false‑flag attacks on Gulf states using LUCAS drones — an American system modeled on the Shahed. The allegation, unverified but strategically potent, aims to sow doubt among Gulf partners already shaken by the war and to fracture Washington’s fragile regional alignment.
Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz with cheap drones and mines, while the U.S. lacks the ships, minesweepers, and escorts needed to reopen it quickly. Insurance markets have collapsed, oil supplies are plunging, and every delay strengthens Iran’s leverage. Some battlefields can be bombed open; Hormuz isn’t one of them.
