This analysis explores the paradox of Turkey’s foreign policy: maintaining vital energy and security ties with Russia while remaining a pillar of NATO. We examine how Ankara leverages its unique geographic position and transactional diplomacy to extract maximum value from both East and West, effectively defining a new model for “middle-power” autonomy in an era of shifting global alliances.
The official expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 5, 2026, marks a historic collapse of the bilateral nuclear arms control framework. For the first time since 1969, the world’s two largest nuclear powers operate without legally binding limits on their strategic arsenals. This analysis explores the risks posed by this legal vacuum, including heightened unpredictability, the erosion of transparency mechanisms, and the challenges of integrating emerging technologies—such as AI and hypersonics—into a future arms control architecture. With no formal successor agreement currently under negotiation, the global security landscape faces a precarious shift toward an unconstrained nuclear environment.
This analysis argues that the recent Iran conflict resulted in a strategic failure for all major stakeholders. While regimes survived and tactical strikes occurred, the war eroded economic stability, shattered regional trust, and failed to establish a durable security architecture. By examining the structural damage to energy corridors and the hardening of nuclear ambitions, the piece demonstrates that the conflict left the Middle East more fragile and unpredictable, fundamentally undermining the influence of both regional and global powers.
This article examines the rise of “civilizationalism” as a guiding doctrine in American foreign policy and the resulting strain on the traditional Western alliance. By analyzing the historical parallels to late-stage imperial Rome and the fracturing of multilateral commitments, we discuss how the shift toward identity-based rhetoric—rather than civic or interest-based diplomacy—is accelerating a global transition toward an “American-minus-one” international system, where key partners increasingly seek stability and trade arrangements outside of Washington’s influence.
This article evaluates the weakening credibility of traditional nuclear deterrence in the face of modern hybrid warfare and proliferating conventional technologies. By analyzing recent conflicts—such as drone strikes on strategic assets—we explore why nuclear-armed states are increasingly vulnerable to non-nuclear attacks. The piece argues that instead of pursuing further proliferation, the global security focus must shift toward “deterrence by denial,” cost-effective missile defense, and strengthening the international nuclear taboo to prevent escalation in an increasingly volatile landscape.
This analysis explores the strategic motivations behind Xi Jinping’s recent state visit to North Korea, examining the complex triangular relationship between Beijing, Pyongyang, and Moscow. As North Korea deepens its military ties with Russia, we discuss how China is navigating the erosion of its traditional diplomatic framework, the pursuit of regional stability, and the ongoing challenge of maintaining economic and political influence over a regime now emboldened by its own nuclear status.
This analysis examines the persistent failure of Western analytical frameworks to accurately predict Russia’s stability. By examining the impact of the “knowledge iron curtain” that has severed direct research ties, the structural biases within exiled opposition discourse, and the ideological blind spots regarding authoritarian functionality, we argue that the “collapse narrative” is actively distorting Western policy. This report challenges the assumption that Russia’s ongoing economic and military stresses must inevitably lead to systemic breakdown, urging a shift toward empirical observation and a more nuanced understanding of how Moscow continues to adapt under pressure.
As of June 1, 2026, the war in Ukraine is characterized by intensified aerial bombardment and long-range drone strikes, deepening the cycle of destruction. With diplomatic efforts stalled and both Moscow and Kyiv prioritizing battlefield gains over concessions, the conflict has settled into a high-intensity stalemate. This report examines the current military landscape, the impact of mid-range strike campaigns on logistics, and the growing divide between U.S.-led pressure for a swift resolution and the European commitment to a sustained, deterrence-based approach to Russian aggression.
The parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, 2026, represent a critical turning point for Armenia’s political and strategic landscape. As the country navigates complex security challenges and fragile peace negotiations with Azerbaijan, these elections serve as a de facto referendum on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s agenda and Armenia’s future orientation. This report examines the intense domestic polarization, the ongoing tensions in relations with Moscow, and the broader implications of this vote for Armenia’s path toward European integration and regional stability in the South Caucasus.
This analysis argues for a structured cofinancing model between Europe and the United States to address persistent shortfalls in high-end military enablers, such as secure command networks and advanced intelligence. By formalizing these investments, allies can maintain credible deterrence against regional threats while optimizing resources across a multipolar global landscape.
This report explores how Pakistan has utilized its strategic position to activate overland trade routes with Iran, bypassing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. We analyze how Islamabad is balancing its relationship with Washington while securing domestic economic interests, asserting itself as a vital node in emerging Eurasian trade networks.
This analysis explores the challenges facing President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to redefine France’s relationship with Africa. By examining recent diplomatic friction, the rise of alternative security and economic partnerships with Russia and China, and the limitations of French reform proposals, we assess the necessity for a more transactional and egalitarian approach to engagement.
