Europe is likely to feature prominently in France’s 2027 presidential contest, though not in the clear pro-versus-anti pattern of 2017. Fiscal pressures have turned questions of debt and spending into debates over European Union rules, the European Central Bank, and France’s standing inside the eurozone. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have already floated plans to cut net contributions to the Union as a way to ease national finances. Qualitative research involving thousands of interviews across several countries finds that French respondents speak about Europe in the most negative terms among the groups surveyed, with many describing deterioration rather than renewal.
Voters who supported Le Pen in 2022 remain strongly critical. Yet supporters of other parties rarely express optimism either. Concerns range from security and war to economic strain, industrial decline, and migration. Across the spectrum, people describe a loss of previous normality. A candidate who campaigns on European indispensability would need to address this broad pessimism and show that the Union can still help France manage its main problems. Centrist and center-left figures such as Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, or Raphaël Glucksmann face the task of convincing uncertain voters that Europe retains practical value.
The radical left and far right are not equivalent on this issue. Voters of France Unbowed identify as European far more often than those of the National Rally. Many of them express concern about values, migration policy, or climate, yet still see a future for the continent if nationalism is contained. Mainstream candidates have reasons to keep their distance from Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s foreign policy positions, including his record on Russia and Ukraine. That distance need not extend to treating all of his electorate as beyond reach on European questions. Speaking to the more European-minded among them could matter in a second round.
Within the National Rally itself, attitudes are not uniform. Roughly half of its supporters feel at least somewhat European. Those who do so tend to rank war and security above migration or living costs as Europe’s main challenges. They show greater support for Ukraine and for common European defense spending. A smaller share remains uncertain rather than outright negative and can describe the need for unity against external threats. Le Pen currently tries to balance a sovereignty message aimed at one part of her base with signals of European solidarity aimed at another. Sustaining that balance through a long campaign may prove difficult.
The 2027 vote may therefore turn on voters who sit outside neat party categories: the European-identifying supporter of the radical left, the center voter who doubts Europe’s direction, or the National Rally voter who concludes that French security requires European cooperation. Current polling shows the National Rally candidate leading the first round, yet second-round outcomes remain open. Candidates who treat Europe as a cross-cutting issue rather than a simple dividing line may find it easier to assemble the coalitions needed to compete.
Original analysis inspired by Paweł Zerka from European Council on Foreign Relations. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
