Qatar is carrying messages between Washington and Tehran as both capitals face pressure to end the war. Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said on November 10 that negotiations were currently stalled and that Iran was waiting for a clear US response to its conditions. The public statements leave room for the intermediaries to keep working. They also show how much of the dispute concerns the order in which the parties would make concessions.
Pressure on Washington is increasingly domestic. A Reuters and Ipsos poll found that 71 percent of US adults wanted Congress to pass legislation ending the war, including 51 percent of Republicans surveyed. The incoming Democratic majorities take office in January, giving lawmakers a chance to press the White House on the campaign’s costs and legal basis. The War Powers Resolution sets deadlines for covered military operations, subject to exceptions, and gives Congress a statutory basis for challenging prolonged hostilities.
Tehran has linked reopening the Strait of Hormuz to Washington’s response to its conditions. The US Energy Information Administration tracks the strait’s importance to oil and gas markets and the limited capacity of routes that bypass it. Some exports have recovered through alternate routes and protected passages, Reuters commentary reported, while shipping and insurance costs remained elevated. That combination gives Washington and Tehran reasons to pursue a deal even as each tries to hold onto its leverage.
A first agreement would have to specify how safe passage for commercial shipping corresponds to a relaxation of US restrictions and a halt to strikes. Either side would want to see the other carry out a commitment before taking a step it would struggle to reverse. A timetable with obligations that can be observed at sea would give Qatari mediators a way to measure whether the positions relayed in private are turning into an agreement.
Original analysis inspired by Federica Marsi from Al Jazeera. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
