The Iran energy shock of 2026 has fundamentally rewritten the rules of global petropolitics. As Brent crude prices surged, the traditional “oil winner” manual was discarded; for the first time, major producers in the Gulf found themselves economically paralyzed by their own geographic leverage.
Gulf states quietly fear that Iran’s collapse would expose their own ideological projects, proxy ties, and strategic contradictions, stripping away the cover Tehran provides and forcing unprecedented scrutiny of Qatar’s networks, Turkey’s ambitions, and Saudi Arabia’s dilemmas.
In 2025, security assessments have highlighted a “paradigm shift” as extremist groups move from passive technology use to the active integration of Generative AI for propaganda, recruitment, and attack planning.
