Sergey Karaganov is intensifying his call for a radical overhaul of Russia’s nuclear strategy following the expiration of the New START treaty. His May 2026 proposals advocate for offensive deterrence, resumed nuclear testing, and targeting European centers, reflecting a dangerous shift in Moscow’s rhetoric toward global escalation and strategic compellence.
Recent American airstrikes and naval blockades have failed to yield the intended concessions from Tehran. Instead, Iran has consolidated domestic support and utilized its strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz to maintain leverage. With global oil prices surging and diplomatic channels narrowing, the confrontation highlights the limitations of force in resolving long-standing geopolitical disputes.
China’s rapid nuclear buildup, projected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, is fundamentally reshaping global strategic stability. Driven by fears of US intervention, Beijing’s expansion has accelerated American modernization and deepened regional tensions. Breaking this cycle requires pragmatic, small-scale transparency measures and concrete discussions on restraint during upcoming high-level summits.
While international mediators have secured a fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran, long-term peace hinges on the formal inclusion of Arab Gulf states. Given their firsthand exposure to regional threats and successful history of mediation, these nations are essential for crafting a multilateral framework that addresses ballistic missiles and maritime security.
Following military operations against Iranian targets, diplomats are navigating fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon. Success depends on establishing credible governance, ensuring Lebanese sovereignty, and addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions while balancing the reconstruction needs of war-torn areas against the necessity of permanent demilitarization and regional security.
Iran is intensifying its diplomatic outreach to Moscow and regional brokers like Oman to navigate the ongoing Hormuz crisis. By prioritizing maritime security and economic stability over immediate nuclear talks, Tehran aims to leverage global energy concerns and Russia’s mediation to counter U.S. pressure and secure long-term regional guarantees.
As the 2026 NPT Review Conference opens in New York, the global non-proliferation regime faces its most existential threat since the Cold War. Against a backdrop of active strikes on nuclear sites and the total collapse of U.S.-Russia arms control, diplomats must navigate a perfect storm of regional warfare and systemic mistrust. With Article VI commitments stalled and China’s arsenal surging to 600 warheads, the next four weeks will determine if the NPT remains a pillar of security or becomes a relic of a bypassed era.
Forty years after the world’s worst nuclear disaster, the anniversary of Chernobyl is being marked by active bombardment and a deepening global safety crisis. With the New Safe Confinement damaged by drone strikes and Iran’s Bushehr facility reportedly hit multiple times, the routine targeting of nuclear infrastructure has exposed a fatal gap in international governance. This report examines the “double standards” of nuclear protection and the paralysis of the IAEA in an age where radioactive sites have become geopolitical pawns.
After thirty years of unsuccessful attempts at total denuclearization, North Korea’s nuclear program has evolved into a formidable, permanent threat. As Pyongyang accelerates missile testing and expands its nuclear facilities, the window for traditional diplomacy has closed. A new pragmatic strategy—a “Cold Peace”—focused on immediate risk reduction and crisis management, may now be the only realistic path to ensuring regional stability.
Operation Epic Fury has provided the Pentagon with a critical reality check on missile warfare. While interception rates in the Gulf reached an impressive 90%, the “magazine depth” crisis is now a strategic liability. With the U.S. depleting nearly 30% of its Tomahawk arsenal and 40% of its global THAAD inventory in just weeks, the conflict has exposed a dangerous replenishment gap that could compromise deterrence in the Indo-Pacific theater against more sophisticated hypersonic threats.
Halfway through 2026, global stability is under siege. From the $100 billion annual funding gap in Ukraine to the dangerous vacuum in nuclear arms control, nations are scrambling to adapt. Rising tariffs, the race for critical minerals, and deep cuts in foreign aid are redefining geopolitical alliances and forcing a shift toward a fragmented, multipolar reality.
The geopolitical fallout of the Iran war has entered a phase of “fractured leadership.” While the United States remains the primary military aggressor, it has become a secondary actor in the diplomatic and maritime cleanup, leaving a coalition of 40 nations to navigate the chaos left in the wake of Operation Epic Fury.
