For fourteen months, Donald Trump tariffed his allies, mocked their security concerns, threatened to invade their territory, and told them to their faces that America would never come to their defense. Then he started a war and asked them for help. The answer, from nearly every capital that matters, has been no.
Anne Applebaum’s essay in The Atlantic strips away the last pretense that Trump’s foreign policy contains hidden logic or strategic depth. The argument is not that allies are being cowardly. It is that they have made a rational calculation: any contribution they make to this war will count for nothing. A few days or weeks later, Trump will not even remember it happened. And so, eighteen days into the largest American military operation since Iraq, the United States finds itself fighting alongside exactly one country — Israel — while the rest of the world watches, winces, and keeps its warships in port.
The Ledger of Insults
The catalog of damage is worth recounting, because Trump appears unable to connect his behavior in one place to the consequences in another. As far back as January 2020, he told European officials that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you. He ridiculed Canada as the 51st state. He referred to both the current and previous Canadian prime ministers as governor. He told Zelensky he had no right to expect support because you don’t have any cards.
He claimed allied troops in Afghanistan stayed a little back, a little off the front lines — a remark that caused enormous offense to the families of soldiers who died after NATO invoked Article 5, on behalf of the United States, the only time it has ever been used. He called the British our once-great ally after they declined to join the initial Iran assault, then mocked their offer to send aircraft carriers: We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!
The Greenland episode crossed a line that some European leaders say they will never forgive. What began as apparent trolling escalated into private and public comments that convinced Denmark to prepare for an American invasion. Danish military planners had to contemplate whether their forces would shoot down American planes and kill American soldiers. In Copenhagen weeks ago, Applebaum was shown a Danish app — the country’s most popular — that identifies American products so consumers know not to buy them.
The tariff damage compounded the diplomatic wounds. Trump raised duties on Switzerland because he disliked the Swiss president, then lowered them after a business delegation brought him gifts including a gold bar and a Rolex. He threatened 100% tariffs on Canada if it dared make a trade deal with China. He conducted trade negotiations with Vietnam while his son Eric broke ground on a $1.5 billion golf course there.
The Responses That Followed
Now, with the Strait of Hormuz shut and oil above $100, Trump has demanded that numerous countries send warships to help clear mines and escort tankers. He told the Financial Times that NATO faces a very bad future if it doesn’t help — apparently forgetting that the United States founded the organization. I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory, he told reporters aboard Air Force One. It is not their territory. And it is his war that blocked their energy.
The responses have been uniform in their refusal. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that Canada will not participate in the offensive operations of Israel and the US, and it never will. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said: This is not our war, and we didn’t start it. Spain refused to allow US bases on its soil for strikes not covered by the UN Charter — and Trump threatened to cut off trade in retaliation. Japan’s prime minister said deployment would be legally difficult and faces 9% public support for the war. Australia and Japan both said Monday they had not even been asked and had no plans to help.
Britain and France have offered the most — and it still amounts to almost nothing. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK might deploy mine-hunting drones already in the region but insisted Britain will not be drawn into the wider war and signaled no warship deployment. The EU foreign policy chief discussed possibly extending a Red Sea naval mission to the strait but provided no details or timeline. Italy’s foreign minister explicitly opposed the idea.
The Logic Behind the Refusal
Applebaum’s central insight is that this isn’t about capability or even about the merits of the war itself. It is about a calculation that every allied leader has independently reached: Trump does not reward loyalty, does not remember sacrifices, and does not connect past behavior to present obligations.
NATO allies deployed troops to Afghanistan for twenty years after invoking Article 5 on America’s behalf. Over 1,100 non-American NATO soldiers died there. Trump responded by claiming they hid behind the front lines. Britain allowed its bases to be used for defensive operations against Iranian missiles and faced immediate public ridicule from the president. Denmark, one of America’s oldest allies, spent months preparing for a potential American invasion of its territory.
The pattern teaches a single lesson: investment in the American alliance yields no return under this president. If allied leaders thought that their sacrifice might count for something in Washington, they might choose differently, Applebaum writes. But most of them have stopped trying to find the hidden logic behind Trump’s actions. A Pew Research survey conducted before the war found favorable views of the US across Europe had fallen to historic lows — and that was before American bombs started falling on Tehran.
The Cost of Isolation
The strategic consequences are already visible. The US is fighting the most expensive military operation in a generation with a coalition of two — itself and Israel. The minesweeping fleet needed to clear the strait is too small for the task, and the European vessels with the best capabilities are months away, according to military analysts. The escort operations that could restart oil tanker traffic require more warships than the US Navy can spare while simultaneously conducting strike operations against Iran. Every allied refusal narrows the options further.
Trump has spent $11 billion in the war’s first week. The Pentagon is burning through precision munitions at rates that alarm Indo-Pacific planners. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being drawn down at historic levels. Gas prices have climbed 66 cents in three weeks. And the president who promised to end forever wars is discovering that the only thing harder than starting one alone is finishing one alone.
Applebaum notes that Trump will spend more in three months on this war than the roughly $50 billion the US provided Ukraine over three years — in the course of starting a war rather than trying to stop one. The comparison captures the bankruptcy of a foreign policy that treated allies as marks to be squeezed rather than partners to be cultivated.
There is a reason every successful American military operation since 1945 was fought with coalitions. It is the same reason every unsuccessful one was fought without them. Alliances are not charity. They are infrastructure — built over decades, maintained through reciprocity, and destroyed in a single presidential term. Trump demolished that infrastructure with insults, tariffs, and threats. Now he stands in its ruins, demanding help from people who learned the hard way that helping him is indistinguishable from helping no one.
