Why Grand Bargains Elude Washington, Beijing and Moscow
High-level summits in Beijing between leaders of the U.S., China, and Russia highlight a new era of strategic distrust. As interdependence fades, these powers are prioritizing economic resilience and flexible, time-limited understandings over comprehensive global accords. This shift reflects a broader trend toward a fragmented, multipolar world defined by competition rather than shared rules.
Putin-Trump Talks Chart Path Beyond Ukraine Stalemate
Recent high-level discussions between President Trump and Vladimir Putin suggest a pivot beyond the Ukraine stalemate. Building on the 2025 Anchorage Summit, the leaders are exploring limited cooperation on Iranian enrichment and energy markets. This evolving dialogue signals a shift toward pragmatism, as both capitals navigate a complex multipolar landscape.
Israel’s Lebanon Quagmire Drains a Tired Military
Weeks after a mid-April ceasefire, Israeli forces remain entrenched in southern Lebanon, facing a war of attrition. The mission, characterized by outpost defense and infrastructure demolition, is severely straining military readiness and reserve morale. Without a clear political exit strategy, the situation risks repeating the unsustainable occupation cycles of previous decades.
Iran War Drives Saudi Red Sea Recalibration
The conflict with Iran has prompted a strategic recalibration in Saudi Arabia, shifting focus toward the Red Sea to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz. By expanding the East-West pipeline and NEOM’s port infrastructure, Riyadh aims to secure trade routes amid a deepening rift with the UAE and volatile global energy markets.
Europe’s Israel Policy Faces Public Reckoning
European nations are facing a significant public reckoning regarding their Israel policies. As favorable views reach single digits in several countries, a massive citizens’ petition has forced EU leaders to debate the suspension of the Israel Association Agreement, exposing a deepening divide between government diplomacy and public sentiment.