Supply Chain – think tanks monitor

Donald Trump speaking at a podium while displaying a chart titled "Reciprocal Tariffs."

Trump’s New Tariffs Hit Asia at the Worst Possible Moment

June 26, 2026

This analysis explores the economic fallout of the Trump administration’s latest tariff strategy following the Supreme Court’s rejection of previous measures. By invoking Section 301 investigations against 60 economies, Washington is reshaping its trade policy amid an already volatile global environment. This post details the compounding impact on Asian markets, which are currently grappling with currency depreciation, high oil prices, and the broader consequences of the recent US-Iran conflict. We examine how these broad-based tariffs create significant compliance uncertainty for global supply chains, strain relationships with key allies, and threaten to increase costs for American households. Ultimately, the article questions the effectiveness of this aggressive trade posture, noting that previous efforts failed to substantively alter industrial policies while creating persistent economic instability.

U.S. Navy sailors stand at attention on the deck of a naval vessel.

America’s Navy Is Winning Battles and Losing the Maritime Order

June 15, 2026

This analysis explores the critical disconnect between American naval superiority and the declining stability of the global maritime order. Despite massive expenditures, the U.S. fleet struggles with coercive asymmetric threats and a structural lack of domestic industrial capacity. The piece argues that reactive, ad hoc responses are insufficient to counter systemic vulnerabilities and the rise of China’s maritime infrastructure, necessitating a comprehensive strategic framework to address the realities of modern maritime disorder.

A wide view of a G20 summit conference hall featuring flags and representatives from various nations.

The Case for a Third Economic Pole Without the US or China

June 3, 2026

This analysis examines the recent Chatham House report, Saving global economic governance from the ‘Trump shock’, which advocates for the creation of a “third economic pole” in the global financial system. As the U.S. and China increasingly weaponize economic policy and dismantle multilateral institutions, the report argues that market-oriented middle powers must move beyond ad-hoc “variable geometry” coalitions. By establishing a standing alliance between the European Union and the 12 CPTPP member states, these nations could create a stable, rules-based trade bloc large enough to maintain economic openness and resilience independently of the two competing hegemons.

European Union flags flying outside the European Commission building in Brussels.

EU’s Chinese Tech Purge Is Costly, Contradictory, and Politically Driven

June 1, 2026

This analysis evaluates the European Commission’s 2026 Cybersecurity Act revisions, which aim to exclude high-risk third-country suppliers from critical networks. We explore the tension between Brussels’ pursuit of digital sovereignty and the economic realities of replacing deeply embedded Chinese technology. By questioning the shift toward origin-based blacklisting rather than universal security auditing, we assess the potential for retaliatory trade measures and long-term instability in EU-China relations.

A person holding a long red dragon banner on a Shanghai waterfront with the Pudong skyline in the background.

Why China Holds Fewer Cards in Trade Tensions

May 14, 2026

Recent analysis suggests that while China’s export controls on critical minerals create short-term friction, Beijing’s broader economic leverage is declining. With real GDP growth estimated at roughly half the official target and a shrinking trade surplus with the U.S., China remains disproportionately dependent on Western markets. This structural vulnerability, combined with persistent property sector and debt issues, limits Beijing’s ability to sustain a prolonged economic confrontation without significant domestic repercussions.

Two gold interlocking gears featuring the national flags of China and the United States.

Small Steps Define Trump’s Beijing Visit

May 13, 2026

President Trump’s visit to Beijing, the first by a U.S. leader in a decade, seeks a tactical stabilization of ties with China. Amid the ongoing Iran conflict and trade frictions, both nations are prioritizing “managed competition” over a full reset, focusing on supply chain resilience, AI safety, and restoring human connections.

A close-up of a serious-looking official in a blue suit during a formal meeting.

The Ceasefire Came — The Economic Pain Hasn’t

April 9, 2026

While oil prices dipped following the April 7 ceasefire, the global economy remains in a “stagflation” trap. With the Strait of Hormuz facing a two-month recovery period and critical infrastructure like Qatar’s Ras Laffan taking years to rebuild, the 40-day conflict has left a permanent scar on energy markets, agriculture, and household budgets that a simple truce cannot erase.

Satellite map of the Persian Gulf with red trajectories crossing through the Strait of Hormuz and a large red 'X'.

Washington’s Retreat From the Strait of Hormuz

April 6, 2026

The strategic withdrawal of the United States from the Strait of Hormuz—once the bedrock of global energy security—has reached a tipping point. President Trump’s “Go Take It” directive has effectively dismantled the Carter Doctrine, leaving a 40-nation coalition to manage a waterway that has become the world’s most dangerous “insurance trap.”

A nighttime view of a city skyline with a large, dark plume of smoke and fire rising from the center. The city lights are visible across the horizon under a dark sky.

When the Strait Closes: Food, Water, and the Hidden Cost of War

March 22, 2026

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global crisis extending beyond oil, paralyzing a third of the world’s fertilizer trade and threatening desalination plants critical for drinking water. This disruption risks long-term food inflation, compromised harvests, and severe economic strain on millions far from the conflict.

Container ship crossing between the US and Chinese flags representing global trade tensions.

Global Trade Caught Between American Chaos and Chinese Calm

February 24, 2026

Global trade is being squeezed between U.S. tariff volatility and China’s projection of stability. Trump’s rapid tariff shifts froze the EU’s Turnberry deal and rattled partners from India to ASEAN. Meanwhile, China’s record surplus masks weak domestic demand. For third countries, the real choice is between American policy whiplash and Chinese dependency.

A man in a dark jacket pushing a shopping cart with a small child sitting inside it down an aisle in a large warehouse store, surrounded by high orange shelves stacked with large boxes of appliances and flat-screen televisions.

New Economic Data Shows Americans Pay 90% of Tariff Costs

February 21, 2026

The newest research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York confirms what every serious economist already knew: tariffs function as a domestic tax, and American households and businesses pay almost all of it. Between early 2024 and late 2025, roughly 90% of tariff costs stayed inside the United States, mirroring the pattern from the 2018–2019 trade war.

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Tag: Supply Chain

Trump’s New Tariffs Hit Asia at the Worst Possible Moment

America’s Navy Is Winning Battles and Losing the Maritime Order

The Case for a Third Economic Pole Without the US or China

EU’s Chinese Tech Purge Is Costly, Contradictory, and Politically Driven

Why China Holds Fewer Cards in Trade Tensions

Small Steps Define Trump’s Beijing Visit

The Ceasefire Came — The Economic Pain Hasn’t

Washington’s Retreat From the Strait of Hormuz

When the Strait Closes: Food, Water, and the Hidden Cost of War

Global Trade Caught Between American Chaos and Chinese Calm

New Economic Data Shows Americans Pay 90% of Tariff Costs

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