Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump spoke by phone for an hour on Monday, March 9, 2026 — their first conversation since December and their first since American and Israeli bombs began falling on Iran eleven days ago. The Kremlin said it was Washington that requested the call, describing it as “serious and constructive”. What followed was a conversation that touched on three wars, two oil crises, and one uncomfortable truth: the conflict Trump launched to weaken Iran is providing a strategic lifeline to Russia.
Putin presented Trump with “several thoughts” and options aimed at a “quick political and diplomatic end” to the Iranian conflict, including potential mediation through contacts with Gulf states. Several hours later, Trump told reporters in Miami he had “a very good talk” with Putin. “He wants to be helpful [with Iran]. I told him you can be more helpful by getting the Ukraine-Russia war over with,” Trump said. That exchange captures the strange geometry of the moment: Russia is Iran’s closest great-power ally, yet it is simultaneously positioning itself as a mediator Washington appears willing to engage.
Moscow’s Dual Game
The timing of Putin’s outreach was deliberate. The call came less than two weeks after Putin denounced the US-Israeli strikes on Iran as a “cynical murder” of the Iranian leadership. On Monday, Putin congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei on his appointment as Iran’s new supreme leader, expressing Russia’s “unwavering support for Tehran”. Yet in the same breath, the Kremlin presented itself as a broker for peace, signaling it is ready to assist in a settlement “to the best of its ability”.
The two leaders also discussed the war in Ukraine, where Putin claimed Russian forces were progressing “with a lot of success”. Trump reiterated his interest in a swift ceasefire and a long-term resolution to the four-year-old conflict, describing the call as “positive” on that subject. However, US officials remain concerned about Russia’s military cooperation with Iran. White House envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly warned Russian officials that sharing intelligence or technology with Tehran would not be tolerated.
The Sanctions Paradox
The most consequential development from Monday may not have been the call itself but what Trump said afterward. Trump told reporters: “We’re also waiving certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices… We have sanctions on some countries. We’re going to take those sanctions off till this straightens out”. While he did not specify which countries, Reuters reported that Trump is considering easing sanctions on Russian oil as part of a strategy to keep global supplies flowing.
The Treasury Department has already issued a temporary 30-day waiver, ending April 3, 2026, allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude oil currently stranded at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described this as a “stop-gap measure” to alleviate pressure caused by Middle East disruptions. Easing sanctions on Russia presents a significant dilemma for Washington: it could help stabilize global oil prices but also risks providing Moscow with fresh revenue to fund its war in Ukraine.
The Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center captured the irony directly, noting that as Middle Eastern and Venezuelan supplies are compromised, “the primary beneficiary is Russia, which is ready to increase oil exports to China”. Analysts at Politico echoed this, calling Putin the “biggest winner” from the Iran war, as crude prices rising above $100 a barrel provide a windfall gain to the Russian economy.
Oil Markets and the War’s Clock
Trump insisted the Iranian operation was “very far ahead of schedule,” but vowed to hit Iran “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if it interferes with the Strait of Hormuz. The vital waterway is “de facto closed” due to high insurance costs and security risks, with tanker traffic nearly stopped. Strategists at Macquarie Research warn that if the strait remains closed for just a few weeks, oil prices could soar to $150 per barrel or more.
The price spikes have caused panic among global importers. In Asia, where roughly 82% of crude leaving the strait is bound, countries like India and Japan are scrambling to secure alternative supplies. US gas prices jumped to an average of $3.45 per gallon on Sunday, the sharpest weekly rise since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The call between the two leaders ended with both expressing willingness to maintain regular communication. But the underlying dynamic remains: every day the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, Russian oil becomes more valuable, and every sanctions waiver granted to stabilize prices hands Moscow leverage it can use in Europe.
Original analysis inspired by The Moscow Times / AFP from The Moscow Times. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
By ThinkTanksMonitor
