In January 2026, the Middle East is witnessing a historic realignment as the UAE-Israel partnership moves from diplomatic cooperation to operational military presence. This collaboration is centered on the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the strategic fragmentation of Yemen, creating a significant rift between the UAE and its traditional ally, Saudi Arabia.
Middle Eastern energy transition is not a mere technical shift but a fundamental geopolitical power redistribution. While regional players like Saudi Arabia and Qatar invest in renewables, they simultaneously leverage hydrocarbons to assert autonomous diplomacy, navigating a multipolar world where energy remains a primary instrument of strategic influence and state survival.
China has transitioned from a traditional infrastructure builder to a primary provider of high-tech space solutions for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). By offering launch services, satellite manufacturing, and the BeiDou navigation system, Beijing is establishing a “Space Silk Road” that challenges Western technological dominance while enabling regional powers to achieve “strategic autonomy.”
President Trump’s 2025 return has reshaped the Middle East through a fragile Gaza ceasefire and “maximum pressure” on Iran, including strikes on nuclear sites. While normalization with Saudi Arabia remains stalled over Palestinian statehood, Trump has pivoted toward Syria, lifting sanctions to back its new leadership.
The competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has shifted from healthy rivalry to a high-stakes struggle for regional gravity. As Saudi Arabia lures 675 global headquarters with tax incentives, it directly challenges the UAE’s hub model. This economic friction, mirrored in political clashes over Sudan and Yemen, threatens to destabilize Gulf integration and overall regional security.
Twelve months after Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Israeli forces have carried out over 600 military operations in Syria, averaging nearly two daily. This extensive campaign, alongside the occupation of territories beyond the 1974 disengagement lines, illustrates a classic pattern of overreach, where tactical dominance leads to strategic vulnerability due to commitments across multiple fronts without clear objectives.
The intersection of commercial interests and diplomatic decision-making is a defining feature of current American foreign policy, as evidenced by dropped prosecutions, controversial pardons, and Gulf investments. These cases highlight the influence of personal business relationships on international relations, raising questions about conflict of interest, transparency, and strategic coherence.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s visits to Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iraq mark a potential shift from external crisis management to regional diplomatic leadership, particularly highlighted by the formal closure of UNAMI after 22 years. This development challenges Samuel Huntington’s “clash of civilizations” framework by illustrating how culturally connected states can effectively mediate conflicts that hinder international institutions.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s involvement in the Gulf Cooperation Council summit highlights Rome’s focus on enhancing relations with the Arabian Peninsula, aiming to establish a Mediterranean-Gulf partnership framework to improve regional connectivity and economic integration among Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
Executed strategically, Trump’s Gulf AI deals could offer a foundation to enhance U.S. AI leadership by anchoring Gulf states more firmly into the United States’s tech orbit and channeling their capital toward American AI interests.
President Trump’s Middle East trip was a wasted opportunity to secure major progress on a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program and resolving the war in Gaza
The U.S. president’s pomp-filled trip comes amid a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
