Iran – think tanks monitor

A composite historical and modern image featuring Saddam Hussein on the left and Ali Khamenei on the right, separated by a digital blue vertical line, with blurred scenes of soldiers and military vehicles in the background.

Beyond Iraq: The High Cost of a Conflict With Iran

February 19, 2026

The renewed deployment of U.S. naval power to the Gulf has revived a debate that Washington never fully resolved: can the United States coerce Iran militarily without triggering a regional or global crisis. The answer, increasingly, is no. Iran is not Iraq — not geographically, not militarily, not diplomatically, and not economically. Any conflict would be multidimensional, prolonged, and globally destabilizing.

A horizontal conceptual digital art piece featuring a hooded figure on the left, a red map of Iran in the center, and a detailed bronze Chinese dragon head on the right, all set against a background of digital binary code and a faded Israeli flag.

Beijing Builds a Digital Great Wall to Shield Iran From Mossad

February 19, 2026

China is no longer treating Israeli covert operations inside Iran as a distant regional issue. For Beijing, the recent wave of sabotage, assassinations, and radar penetrations has revealed a new model of warfare — one that blends cyber infiltration, internal disruption, and precision strikes. And because Iran sits at the heart of China’s Belt and Road energy corridor, Beijing now sees Iranian vulnerability as Chinese vulnerability.

A digital illustration of a man in a suit viewed from behind, standing on a cracked map shaped like Iraq, looking toward a dark, silhouetted skyline with an oil derrick and mosques.

Iraq’s Political Gamble: When Strongmen Return to Fragmented States

February 18, 2026

In early 2026, Iraq finds itself in a state of “organized confusion” as it attempts to finalize its government following the November 11, 2025 elections. The sudden withdrawal of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and the push for Nuri al-Maliki’s return have transformed a domestic transition into a high-stakes standoff between Washington and Tehran.

A high-angle view of a United States aircraft carrier deck at sea, packed with various fighter jets including F/A-18 Super Hornets, with a mountainous coastline and blue sky in the background.

When Alliance Distances Become Strategic Liabilities: Europe’s Iran Dilemma

February 16, 2026

Europe is trying to perform an impossible balancing act: signal independence from Washington while relying entirely on American military power to deter threats that Europe cannot handle alone. The Iran crisis exposes this contradiction with unusual clarity. At the very moment when Western unity is strategically essential, Europe is drifting into rhetorical autonomy that it cannot operationalize.

A black and white, high-contrast close-up of Donald Trump sitting at a long table during a meeting, looking towards the camera with a stern expression, surrounded by other men in suits who are partially blurred.

The Psychology of Escalation in Foreign Intervention

February 16, 2026

U.S. decision‑making on Iran is increasingly shaped not by structured interagency analysis but by a feedback loop of emotional validation. When a leader repeatedly asks a narrow circle of loyalists whether an action is a “winner,” the question itself becomes a self‑fulfilling prophecy. The result is a foreign policy environment where impulse, affirmation, and narrative gratification override strategic caution.

A medium shot of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi standing together in a formal indoor setting, both smiling slightly at the camera.

Why Tehran Chose Muscat: The Strategic Logic Behind Iran’s Mediation Preferences

February 12, 2026

Iran favors Muscat because Oman offers neutrality, discretion, and insulation from agenda‑expanding pressures, allowing Tehran to control the scope of talks and avoid the political exposure it fears in venues like Istanbul.

A split-screen close-up portrait featuring Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the left with a blurred US flag in the background, and Abbas Araghchi on the right with a blurred Iranian flag in the background.

Renewed Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Oman Face Old Obstacles

February 10, 2026

Iran’s push to restart Muscat talks reflects domestic turmoil and strategic delay, but clashing agendas, sidelined Europeans, and unresolved trust gaps suggest the negotiations remain a fragile holding pattern rather than a path to a durable nuclear deal.

A group of men in formal suits, led by Abbas Araghchi and Majid Takht-Ravanchi, walking through a modern hallway, accompanied by an Omani official in traditional white attire and a patterned turban.

Muscat Nuclear Talks Expose Deep US-Iran Divide

February 10, 2026

Muscat’s talks revealed a fragile diplomatic opening overshadowed by military brinkmanship, deep mistrust, and clashing agendas, leaving the US‑Iran channel open but far from any path toward a real nuclear agreement.

Two high-ranking political and religious leaders, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ali Khamenei, sitting in armchairs and smiling during a formal meeting, with the Iranian flag and a portrait of Ruhollah Khomeini in the background.

Ankara’s Iran Mediation Serves a Broader Ottoman-Era Ambition

February 9, 2026

Turkey’s mediation between the US and Iran reflects a long-term strategy to expand its regional influence, manage security risks, and assert a neo-Ottoman leadership role, even as credibility gaps and geopolitical rivalries limit how far Ankara’s ambitions can translate into real diplomatic authority.

A man with a white beard, wearing a black turban and glasses, speaking into two microphones and pointing his finger.

Why Military Coercion Against Iran Risks a Regional Catastrophe

February 8, 2026

In early February 2026, the Persian Gulf sits at a knife-edge. The “Oman Talks,” which began on February 6, represent a desperate diplomatic attempt to avert a third Gulf War. While Washington views its “Armada” and the recent capture of Venezuela’s Maduro as leverage to force a total Iranian capitulation, Tehran views the same events as an existential threat that demands unconstrained asymmetric retaliation.

An aerial view of a large grey aircraft carrier sailing across a deep blue ocean, with several fighter jets parked on its flight deck.

Scenarios for a US Military Strike on Iran

February 7, 2026

The recent surge in U.S. force posture—centered on the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group on January 26, 2026—has brought the “maximum pressure” campaign to a critical kinetic threshold. This buildup is the largest since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, when B-2 stealth bombers struck Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

A close-up shot of a blue surface with a white atomic symbol, partially covered by a red and white flag.

Why Economic Pressure Against Iran Continues Despite Policy Failures

February 6, 2026

This analysis explores why Iran sanctions persist despite failing to curb nuclear or missile programs. It argues that the focus has shifted from behavioral change to deliberate economic destabilization. By fostering “ghost fleets” for oil exports and causing severe civilian humanitarian crises, these measures may serve regime-change agendas rather than stated diplomatic goals.

Featured

Iran and the Logic of Limited Wars

Topics

Featured

Trump’s “Sheriffs” Can’t Keep the Peace with China

Middle East

Asia

America

Europe

Africa

Cartoon

Video

Podcast

Category: Iran

Beyond Iraq: The High Cost of a Conflict With Iran

Beijing Builds a Digital Great Wall to Shield Iran From Mossad

Iraq’s Political Gamble: When Strongmen Return to Fragmented States

When Alliance Distances Become Strategic Liabilities: Europe’s Iran Dilemma

The Psychology of Escalation in Foreign Intervention

Why Tehran Chose Muscat: The Strategic Logic Behind Iran’s Mediation Preferences

Renewed Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Oman Face Old Obstacles

Muscat Nuclear Talks Expose Deep US-Iran Divide

Ankara’s Iran Mediation Serves a Broader Ottoman-Era Ambition

Why Military Coercion Against Iran Risks a Regional Catastrophe

Scenarios for a US Military Strike on Iran

Why Economic Pressure Against Iran Continues Despite Policy Failures

Regions

Subjects

Multimedia

Contact Info

Email