In January 2026, the Abraham Accords are entering their most critical phase, as the pragmatic “outside-in” strategy for regional peace faces the dual pressures of Iranian proxy escalation and the internal institutionalization of political Islam.
The protests that began on December 28, 2025, represent a critical inflection point for Iran, fueled by an economic “perfect storm” that has effectively hollowed out the country’s middle class. As of January 4, 2026, the movement has spread to over 100 locations across 22 provinces, marking it as one of the most geographically expansive challenges to the Islamic Republic since 1979.
In December 2025, mass protests erupted across Iran, sparked not by a revolutionary movement but by the sheer desperation of a collapsing economy. The Iranian rial plummeted to a historic low of 1.42 million per dollar, triggering market shutdowns and the largest civil unrest since 2022.
As Prime Minister Al-Sudani navigates a fractured parliament following the November 2025 elections, Iraq has become the ultimate battleground for US and Iranian influence. With the Trump administration demanding the exclusion of sanctioned militias and Tehran leveraging its strategic assets, the race for the premiership—featuring figures like Nouri al-Maliki and Qasim al-Araji—will determine whether Iraq can maintain its sovereignty or fall deeper into a high-stakes geopolitical confrontation.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to Tehran signifies a crucial shift in the Middle East’s geopolitical dynamics. Amid increasing regional instability, Türkiye and Iran are evolving from transactional diplomacy to a deep structural partnership. Fidan’s discussions with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi aimed at integrating Iran into a framework for “regional solutions for regional problems,” beyond just preparation for the High-Level Cooperation Council.
Israel’s limited war on Iran needs to be judged against the alternatives. By that measure, the operation was a success. Limited wars can buy time, shift the geopolitical dynamic and, in doing so, pave the way to something more enduring.
In his first major policy speech as secretary of state — delivered Monday at the Heritage Foundation — Mike Pompeo set out the Trump administration’s Iran strategy.
The U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, following Israel’s successful operation, has left the situation uncertain. Key questions remain: Did America cripple Iran’s nuclear program? How will Iran retaliate? And could this crisis lead to regime change?
An “interim” nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran seems likely, and would be a grave mistake for the United States.
Israel’s “Iron Beam” laser air defense system is being deployed in the field and offers the first cost-effective response to drone warfare.
