Caribbean area – think tanks monitor

Iran and the Logic of Limited Wars

Israel’s limited war on Iran needs to be judged against the alternatives. By that measure, the operation was a success. Limited wars can buy time, shift the geopolitical dynamic and, in doing so, pave the way to something more enduring.

Trump’s “Sheriffs” Can’t Keep the Peace with China

Trump’s foreign policy echoes Nixon’s doctrine of delegating regional security to allies (like Israel in the Middle East) to reduce U.S. burdens. While this approach shows promise in the Middle East and Europe, it faces hurdles: loss of control over proxies, continued U.S. involvement needs, and outright failure in Asia—where China’s military dominance makes allied self-reliance impossible.

A split-screen image showing a close-up of Donald Trump speaking on the left and a group of people carrying belongings while wading through a river on the right.

When Military Shows of Force Replace Political Solutions: The Contradiction at the Heart of U.S. Haiti Policy

February 18, 2026

In early 2026, Haiti has reached a critical juncture where the expiration of the Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) mandate has paved the way for a more overt U.S. military presence in the Caribbean. The arrival of warships in the Bay of Port-au-Prince on February 4, 2026, underscores a century-long pattern: when Haitian institutions falter, Washington resorts to “Gunboat Diplomacy.”

Donald Trump speaking at a podium with two men standing behind him and a hand raised in the foreground.

Hemispheric Realignment and the Reconstitution of Regional Power Dynamics in the Western Hemisphere

February 8, 2026

In early 2026, the Western Hemisphere is witnessing a seismic shift in geopolitical alignment. Driven by the December 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) and the implementation of the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, Washington has re-prioritized the Americas as its primary strategic theater. This realignment focuses on three pillars: the exclusion of non-hemispheric powers (China and Russia), the securitization of migration and trade, and the direct use of “regime change” as a tool of stability.

Illustration featuring a large red clenched fist on the right and a yellow dollar sign over a silhouette map of Central and South America on the left, set against a red background with yellow stars.

Economic Pragmatism Trumps Ideology in Latin America’s China Dilemma

February 5, 2026

This article examines how Latin America’s deep-seated integration into Chinese trade networks—exceeding $515 billion in 2024—overrides the region’s recent rightward political shifts. Using case studies from Argentina’s soy exports to Brazil’s response to U.S. tariffs, it argues that economic pragmatism and the “commercial logic of resource extraction” remain more influential than ideological alignment with Washington.

Sunset view of a busy port with cargo ships and ferries, including the "T&T Spirit," docked near an industrial area

The Americas Apart: Summit Postponement Signals Collapse of Regional Consensus

December 6, 2025

The indefinite postponement of the 10th Summit of the Americas by the Dominican Republic in late 2025 signifies a critical juncture in the decline of Pan-American diplomacy. Once intended as a platform for economic integration and democratic solidarity since the 1990s, the summit process has now stalled due to “profound divergences” as described by Santo Domingo.

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Category: Caribbean area

When Military Shows of Force Replace Political Solutions: The Contradiction at the Heart of U.S. Haiti Policy

Hemispheric Realignment and the Reconstitution of Regional Power Dynamics in the Western Hemisphere

Economic Pragmatism Trumps Ideology in Latin America’s China Dilemma

The Americas Apart: Summit Postponement Signals Collapse of Regional Consensus

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