President Trump’s 2025 return has reshaped the Middle East through a fragile Gaza ceasefire and “maximum pressure” on Iran, including strikes on nuclear sites. While normalization with Saudi Arabia remains stalled over Palestinian statehood, Trump has pivoted toward Syria, lifting sanctions to back its new leadership.
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s administration in Syria marked its first anniversary by achieving diplomatic milestones and facing internal strife post-Bashar al-Assad’s fall. Key successes include gaining Western backing, with the U.S. and U.K. removing Sharaa from terrorist lists, and normalizing relations through significant meetings, notably with President Trump. These diplomatic efforts led to sanctions relief under the Caesar Act and Syria’s return to SWIFT, fostering prospects for economic recovery amid challenges in asserting control over the diverse sectarian landscape.
Twelve months after Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Israeli forces have carried out over 600 military operations in Syria, averaging nearly two daily. This extensive campaign, alongside the occupation of territories beyond the 1974 disengagement lines, illustrates a classic pattern of overreach, where tactical dominance leads to strategic vulnerability due to commitments across multiple fronts without clear objectives.
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s meeting with President Trump on November 10 marked a significant diplomatic achievement for Syria, resulting in the removal of UN Security Council sanctions and a suspension of the Caesar Act for six months. However, consolidating this international recognition domestically is challenging due to Kurdish forces’ resistance to integration, demands for autonomy from Druze leaders, and Israeli military expansion in southern Syria.
One year post-Assad regime, Syria’s transitional government led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa grapples with rebuilding state institutions amidst sectarian divisions, economic turmoil, and regional complexities. This anniversary highlights both diplomatic progress and ongoing domestic instability, influencing Syria’s future direction.
The October 2025 summit in Moscow between Vladimir Putin and Ahmed al-Sharaa highlights a shift in Russia’s diplomatic strategy following the collapse of the Ba’athist regime in Syria. Contrary to predictions of diminished Russian influence, the Kremlin has adapted its approach, favoring transactional pragmatism over ideological loyalty. By engaging with former adversaries, Russia seeks to preserve its strategic interests in the Mediterranean, underscoring that its foreign policy is primarily motivated by practical concerns.
Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria and meet with its new president is a major shift in U.S.-Syria relations, but it may not be an indicator that Syrian refugees should return home any time soon.
