Two aircraft carrier strike groups. Over 150 warplanes repositioned across Europe and the Middle East. Submarines in the Mediterranean. The current American air force buildup is the largest in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The Pentagon is sending the largest force of American warships and aircraft to the region in decades, as President Donald Trump warns of possible military action against Iran if talks over its nuclear program fall apart. The message from Washington is unmistakable — but whether it ends in a strike or a deal is far from settled.+3
Trump set the clock ticking last week. He warned Iran that it must reach a deal over its nuclear program or “bad things” will happen, setting a 10-to-15-day deadline, even as negotiations were described as ongoing and a broader military buildup fueled fears of a wider war. The ultimatum boxed both sides into a corner. Back down, and Trump’s credibility as a hardliner collapses. Ignore it, and Tehran risks triggering the very military campaign its shattered economy cannot afford to absorb.
The Arithmetic of Mutual Vulnerability
Iran’s position is weaker than it appears. Sanctions put the Iranian rial into a freefall, prompting a destabilizing outbreak of protests, which were brutally repressed — with people killed by gunfire on a scale unseen since World War II. Trump’s initial threats of military action were directly tied to Iran’s killing of more than 6,000 protesters who took part in last month’s major uprising against the leadership. For Ayatollah Khamenei, a second war front is the last thing a regime facing a restless, economically exhausted population needs.
But Washington has its own constraints. The aircraft carriers and accompanying warships allow the US to conduct an attack on Iran without drawing on US aircraft stationed in Arab Gulf states — those governments, fearing retaliation from Iran’s missile arsenal, have said they will not allow offensive operations to be launched from their territories. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supply passes, looms over every scenario. Top Iranian officials have warned they will militarily block the Strait if the country is attacked, and Iranian state media reported that parts of the waterway would close temporarily while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard conducts military drills there.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that Iran still possesses ballistic missiles that can strike its enemies in the region, but warned that “the Islamic Republic may think that would be a deterrent to Trump, whereas in reality, that might be an inducement to move the president from a limited operation to a larger one”.
Two Strike Scenarios — and the Day After
The options before Trump appear relatively well established, described in vague terms by the president himself and in more detail by people familiar with the matter; they range widely, with some carrying significant risks, and he is hearing sometimes conflicting advice from allies, advisers, and foreign counterparts. Trump could hold off ordering any military action entirely, hoping the presence of two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, and hundreds of warplanes might convince Tehran to negotiate.
A more limited strike — targeting missile launchers, air defenses, and nuclear infrastructure — would follow the template of Operation Midnight Hammer, the June 2025 campaign that heavily damaged three Iranian nuclear sites. One analysis of the current force posture suggests the US intends to carry out an initial strike to neutralize key targets like air defenses and airfields, using a mix of B-2s, F-35Cs and EA-18Gs, followed by potentially several days or weeks of further strikes. The goal would be “strategic submission” without a ground war — a declaration of victory and a rapid exit.+1
The second scenario is far more treacherous. If diplomacy fails, Trump could launch a far larger operation meant to topple the Iranian regime. But as analysts at the International Crisis Group have long warned, regime collapse in Iran would not produce a compliant successor. A post-Islamic Republic authority would face armed ideological networks trained in decentralized warfare, in a country with a deep culture of resistance to foreign intervention — a recipe, in short, for a new “endless war” of the kind Trump spent years decrying.
A Deal Still Possible — But Narrow
Despite the war footing, diplomatic channels have not closed. The US and Iran are expected to hold another round of talks in Geneva, focused on Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump said his “preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy”. His envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner have been conducting indirect talks with Iranian officials and will return to Geneva for another round — both men have encouraged the president to allow time to see whether a deal is possible.+2
The contours of a potential agreement are quietly taking shape, and they may surprise hardliners on both sides. The Trump administration has signaled it is prepared to consider a proposal that allows Iran “token” nuclear enrichment, if it leaves no possible path to a bomb — suggesting there could be an opening, if only a small one, between the red lines set by both sides. A source familiar with the talks told Axios that both Omani and Qatari mediators told Iran and the US that any deal must enable both sides to claim victory and, if possible, be something that Gulf countries and Israel can live with.+2
Iran’s negotiating position is constrained by its own nuclear calendar. Iran is not currently enriching uranium because the centrifuges in its nuclear facilities were largely destroyed by airstrikes last June, and the US and Israel have said they would strike again if enrichment resumes. In Geneva, Tehran reportedly offered only to suspend enrichment for three to five years and indicated willingness to eliminate its stockpile of 407 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium. Whether that is enough to satisfy an administration that has publicly demanded zero enrichment on Iranian soil remains the central unanswered question.+1
The current diplomatic push is likely the last chance Trump will give Iran before launching a massive US-Israeli military operation that could directly target Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, US officials say. Both sides understand this. The question is whether the pressure calculus — economic pain in Tehran, political risk for Trump at home — creates just enough shared interest in an imperfect deal to pull the region back from a conflict that neither side can fully control once started.
Original analysis inspired by Shahir Shahidsaless from Middle East Eye. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
