Proxy War – think tanks monitor

Thick black smoke rising into the sky over a Lebanese city with residential buildings in the foreground.

Lebanon Has No Seat at the Table — Only a Place on the Menu

June 3, 2026

This analysis explores Lebanon’s precarious position as the regional conflict between Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem escalates. Despite the pretense of formal diplomatic talks, Lebanon continues to be treated as a theater of war rather than a sovereign participant in the ongoing negotiations. By examining the structural weaknesses of the Lebanese state, the tactical decoupling of the Lebanon track from broader nuclear talks, and the potential for a cynical diplomatic settlement that sacrifices Lebanese stability for US-Iran concessions, we assess the worsening humanitarian and security crisis facing the country as of June 2026.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan walking through a crowded assembly hall.

Turkey Is Building the Military Network Iran Could Never Assemble

June 2, 2026

This analysis examines Turkey’s ambitious regional military strategy as demonstrated at the EFES-2026 exercise. By hosting troops from across North Africa and the Levant—including previously fractured Libyan factions and Syria’s newly reconstituted army—Ankara is moving beyond the proxy-based influence models of the past. We explore how Turkey is leveraging its institutional legitimacy and NATO status to formalize a durable military network, effectively creating a new strategic reality in the Middle East that challenges Israeli security planning and reshapes the regional balance of power.

A soldier in military uniform standing guard near a mosque and city traffic.

Syria’s New Army Is Built on Fault Lines, Not Foundations

June 2, 2026

This analysis examines the structural challenges facing Syria’s post-2024 military integration. Rather than establishing a centralized national institution, the transitional authorities in Damascus have incorporated wartime factions intact, effectively codifying local patronage networks and kinship-based command structures. We explore how this “federation of armed communities” mirrors the failures of past post-conflict settlements in Lebanon and Iraq, raising serious questions about the long-term viability of the new Syrian state and its ability to exert genuine central control.

A city skyline engulfed in thick, dark smoke from an industrial fire or explosion.

UAE’s Facade of Neutrality Crumbles in US-Iran War

May 30, 2026

This analysis examines the erosion of the United Arab Emirates’ neutrality during the 2026 US-Iran conflict. By detailing the UAE’s secret military participation, integration into regional air defense networks, and the subsequent economic and security vulnerabilities created by these choices, we explore how Abu Dhabi has moved from a regional arbiter to a direct, and exposed, participant in the ongoing regional war.

A composite image featuring Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu set against a backdrop of industrial oil tankers at sea.

Three Months In, Iran Is Winning the War It Didn’t Start

May 26, 2026

This analysis evaluates the outcomes of “Operation Epic Fury,” the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that commenced on February 28, 2026. By contrasting the initial objectives of the intervention—ranging from regime change to the elimination of Iran’s nuclear capabilities—with the current geopolitical reality, the report examines how a fractured strategic plan led to a prolonged conflict, the consolidation of Iran’s new leadership, and the emergence of a tenuous ceasefire framework. Ultimately, the article argues that the gap between the war’s original premise and its results reveals the limitations of military-first approaches when confronted with resilient state apparatuses and the complexities of regional power dynamics.

A crowd of people with a Cuban flag held high.

Is Cuba the Next Venezuela? Washington’s Escalation Playbook

May 23, 2026

This analysis examines the escalating U.S. pressure campaign against Cuba, characterized by intelligence leaks, criminal indictments, and economic blockades. By comparing these developments to the strategic framework used against Venezuela, the article explores how Washington is methodically constructing a legal and political pretext to justify potential future military intervention.

People holding Ethiopian flags against a sunset background.

Horn of Africa Edges Toward Regional War

May 23, 2026

This analysis examines the converging crises in the Horn of Africa, where overlapping internal conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia are fueling a cycle of regional instability. We evaluate how shifting alliances, ethnic ties, and cross-border proxy support create a volatile environment. The article addresses the limitations of current diplomatic channels and the urgent necessity for international mediation to prevent a broader regional catastrophe.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman against a backdrop of the Iranian flag and historical diplomatic imagery.

GCC Rethinks Iran Strategy After Brutal War

May 22, 2026

This analysis examines the strategic shift within the GCC regarding Iran following recent regional conflicts. As energy security concerns rise, Gulf capitals are exploring non-aggression frameworks and diplomatic pathways to manage long-term tensions. We evaluate the feasibility of these proposals, the role of external mediators, and the path toward incremental stability.

Donald Trump seated at a desk with advisors, including Marco Rubio, while an official holds up a red "America is Back!" hat.

Lebanon’s Sovereignty Strained by US Talks

May 15, 2026

This article examines the challenges facing Lebanon as Washington-mediated negotiations with Israel enter a critical phase. Amid continued displacement and domestic dissent, Lebanese leaders struggle to assert sovereignty while balancing external diplomatic pressure. The analysis warns that without broad national consensus, these talks risk deepening internal fractures and regional instability.

Donald Trump pointing a finger forward while standing at a podium.

Trump’s Iran Ultimatums Risk Deeper Stalemate

May 14, 2026

President Trump’s strategy of perpetual ultimatums toward Iran is creating an entrenched stalemate that unsettles global energy markets. While intended to maintain leverage, the cycle of threats without resolution has allowed Tehran to calibrate its defiance, keeping oil prices elevated and leaving the Strait of Hormuz in a state of dangerous, indefinite tension.

UAE OPEC Exit Signals GCC Fragmentation

May 12, 2026

The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC highlights a deepening fragmentation within the GCC. As Iranian strikes expose varying regional vulnerabilities, Abu Dhabi is prioritizing national autonomy and independent export routes over collective frameworks. This strategic shift suggests that traditional Gulf alliances are struggling to meet the demands of a volatile security landscape.

Closing America’s Gray Zone Confidence Gap

May 12, 2026

Strategic competition today is defined by influence operations and narrative battles, yet American decision-making remains plagued by institutional overconfidence. Lessons from Afghanistan highlight a failure to track analytical accuracy, suggesting that the U.S. must invest in “decision infrastructure” and forecasting systems to turn intelligence into a durable advantage.

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Tag: Proxy War

Lebanon Has No Seat at the Table — Only a Place on the Menu

Turkey Is Building the Military Network Iran Could Never Assemble

Syria’s New Army Is Built on Fault Lines, Not Foundations

UAE’s Facade of Neutrality Crumbles in US-Iran War

Three Months In, Iran Is Winning the War It Didn’t Start

Is Cuba the Next Venezuela? Washington’s Escalation Playbook

Horn of Africa Edges Toward Regional War

GCC Rethinks Iran Strategy After Brutal War

Lebanon’s Sovereignty Strained by US Talks

Trump’s Iran Ultimatums Risk Deeper Stalemate

UAE OPEC Exit Signals GCC Fragmentation

Closing America’s Gray Zone Confidence Gap

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