Donald Trump insists he is not governed by electoral calendars. In a cabinet meeting this week, he flatly declared he does not care about the midterms, brushing aside the notion that Tehran could simply wait him out at the negotiating table. That posture may be politically necessary. Admitting to an electoral clock would only harden Iran’s resolve to stall. But the data tells a different story — one in which Operation Epic Fury has become a slow-motion liability for the Republican Party, and November is arriving faster than the war is resolving.
A Coalition Coming Apart
The numbers are unambiguous. Trump’s approval rating has hit a second-term low of 37%, as the conflict grinds on without a decisive outcome. A CBS poll found that 66% of respondents disapprove of the way Trump is handling the situation with Iran, and 61% disapprove of all military action against it. The damage is not confined to predictable opponents. The drop in approval is particularly stark with key voting groups who helped deliver his 2024 victory, including Latino voters, independents, and young voters — with 71% of Hispanic respondents, 70% of independents, and 76% of voters aged 18 to 29 now disapproving of his job performance.
The generic congressional ballot, which tends to track broader electoral momentum better than any single approval figure, has also moved sharply. Democrats hold a 7.1 point lead in national polling averages, up from 5.5 points when the bombs first fell on Iran in late February. Historical data is unambiguous: every president since Harry Truman whose approval was below 50% in the month before a midterm election lost House seats, and when approval falls below 40%, the average seat loss climbs to 34. Republicans currently hold just a five-seat majority in the House.
The Economy, Not the War
What is driving this erosion is less the military campaign itself and more what it has done to household budgets. Trump won in 2024 on an affordability platform — lower grocery bills, tamed inflation, energy cost relief. The outbreak of the Iran war on February 28 introduced a further complicating factor, with rising gasoline prices emerging as a central electoral concern, representing the most direct channel through which the costs of the conflict were transmitted to American voters.
Democrats see the war as evidence of what they have told voters about Trump all along: he does not care about affordability. “We have a president who has campaigned on ending forever wars, and he has jumped into war without justification or explanation to the American people,” said Representative Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. That message is finding traction precisely because Trump handed Democrats the attack line himself, openly stating he does not think about Americans’ financial situation when it comes to Iran.
In a PBS/Marist poll, just 33% said they approved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, and 35% approved of his handling of the economy — the lowest figures for either of his two terms in office. That combination is toxic for a party trying to defend a razor-thin congressional majority.
Cracks Inside the GOP
Republicans had long circled Tax Day as the unofficial start to a critical midterm campaign meant to highlight affordability gains — then Trump launched a costly war in Iran, sent gas prices soaring, and singlehandedly upended months of careful political planning, raising the odds of an electoral wipeout that could cost Republicans control of Congress.
The fractures are not only electoral. While the core of Trump’s base has come out in support of the joint US-Israel strikes, some influential figures on the American right have denounced them — heightening tensions already at play within the MAGA movement and dovetailing with conservative concerns about Israel’s influence over US foreign policy. In one of the reddest states in the country, more voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary than the Republican one during the Texas primary in early March — prompting warnings that Texas could flip its Senate seat blue, an outcome that would have been nearly unthinkable a year earlier.
Republicans have pointed to redistricting gains and a fundraising advantage as counterweights. Two court decisions gave Republicans the upper hand in the redistricting fight, likely reducing the number of congressional seats Democrats can pick up, and the GOP has raised significantly more money than major Democratic groups. But structural advantages rarely survive a 19-point presidential approval deficit.
Even a swift resolution to the conflict offers limited political relief. A swift win might blunt Democratic enthusiasm and provide some insulation against the worst losses, but it is unlikely to overcome the historic midterm headwinds, the generic ballot deficit, or the damage already done to Trump’s coalition. Gas prices, once spiked, take weeks to recede. Economic ripple effects from energy shocks take months to clear. The 2026 midterms, then, may not only serve as a referendum on Trump and Republicans, but also on the special relationship that the US maintains with Israel. For a party already holding on by a thread, that is an extraordinarily exposed position to be in.
By ThinkTanksMonitor
