The Middle East is entering a new phase of competition, with two emerging blocs—the Abrahamic coalition and the Islamic coalition—now defining the region’s strategic trajectory. The competition between these two camps is reshaping geopolitical dynamics, with the rivalry expected to play a significant role in determining the future of U.S. foreign policy in the region.
While Iran has dominated the headlines due to its violent crackdown on protesters and ongoing speculation about U.S. military intervention, its role is increasingly becoming secondary to the deeper regional shift. Iran, once a principal actor in shaping the Middle East, is now facing competition from these two distinct coalitions, which are moving toward greater coherence and strategic collaboration.
The Rise of the Abrahamic Coalition: Israel, UAE, and Beyond
The Abrahamic coalition, centered around Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is fast becoming an ascendant force in the region. The coalition has expanded its reach to include countries like Morocco, Greece, and even India. This bloc seeks to reshape the Middle East through military collaboration, technological innovation, and economic integration.
The primary aim of this coalition is to challenge the influence of Iran and its Shiite-backed militant Islam, as well as Sunni-backed forces led by Turkey and Qatar. Countries in the Abrahamic coalition argue that regional stability can only be achieved by supporting secular, moderate forces and pushing back against the Islamist movements that have plagued the region for decades. They view U.S. President Donald Trump’s expansion of the Abraham Accords as a key tool for Arab-Israeli normalization, focusing on enhancing military and economic ties regardless of Israel’s stance on Palestinian self-determination or the two-state solution.
Israel’s military actions following the Hamas attacks in Gaza in October 2023 and the UAE’s increasing diplomatic influence have bolstered this bloc’s position. The UAE, for example, has cultivated a reputation as a diplomatic powerhouse, utilizing its wealth and influence to expand its regional footprint. Reports from United Nations experts have highlighted the UAE’s involvement in supplying arms to factions in Yemen and Sudan, further illustrating its growing influence in the region.
India’s expanding relationship with Israel and the UAE through multilateral frameworks such as the I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor has solidified the Abrahamic coalition’s strategic depth, pushing the boundaries of its influence beyond the Middle East itself.
The Islamic Coalition: A Counterbalance to the Abrahamic Bloc
Opposing the Abrahamic coalition is the Islamic coalition, led by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Qatar, with Egypt taking a more cautious approach. These states view the rise of the Abrahamic coalition as a destabilizing force that exacerbates the fragmentation of the region. They argue that the coalition’s support for separatist forces in conflict zones like Yemen, Sudan, and Libya only weakens the sovereign integrity of these states.
Saudi Arabia, traditionally a key player in the Islamic camp, has worked to strengthen defense ties with Pakistan and Turkey, and has grown increasingly wary of Israeli and Emirati actions in the Horn of Africa. Reports from Al Jazeera show that Saudi Arabia has even taken military actions to counter Emirati influence in Yemen, underscoring the growing tensions between these Gulf powers.
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has emerged as one of the most consequential bilateral issues in the Middle East. Once seen as close allies, the two countries are now engaged in a strategic competition that has led to proxy battles in Yemen, as well as deeper fissures in their diplomatic and economic relationships. This competition has even prompted discussions of possible Emirati withdrawal from Saudi-dominated organizations like OPEC+.
The U.S. Role in the Middle East: Managing Competing Alliances
For the United States, the challenge in the Middle East has shifted from countering Iran to managing the rivalry between its regional partners. The Abrahamic coalition, despite its growing power, faces challenges in maintaining unity, particularly in its relations with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s pragmatic stance—described by senior officials as guided by “maximum flexibility at a time of maximum uncertainty”—remains a key factor in determining the region’s future. While Saudi Arabia has shown interest in pursuing normalization with Israel, its ability to move forward with such a deal is heavily dependent on Israeli actions regarding Palestine.
The Biden administration faces internal divisions over its Middle East strategy. Senior officials are often at odds over the best approach to balancing support for Israel with broader regional security concerns. According to the Brookings Institution, the U.S. must now focus on managing these rivalries to prevent further fragmentation and ensure that its regional alliances do not devolve into open conflict.
Saudi-Israeli Normalization: The Path to Stabilizing the Region
One of the United States’ key objectives in the Middle East has been to facilitate Saudi-Israeli normalization. However, significant obstacles remain. While Saudi Arabia sees strategic value in such a deal—particularly in securing U.S. security guarantees—the kingdom’s support for Palestinian self-determination and its growing relationship with Turkey and Pakistan complicates this process.
As the Middle East’s two rival coalitions continue to vie for dominance, the future of the region will depend on how these alliances evolve. Will the U.S. succeed in fostering a historic breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Israel before the end of President Trump’s term? Or will the deepening rivalry between the Abrahamic and Islamic blocs lead to further instability?
For now, the future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the competition between these two coalitions will do more to shape the future of the Middle East than Iran’s actions or any potential U.S. military strikes.
Original analysis inspired by Firas Maksad from Foreign Policy. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
