Four years in, Russia controls 20% of Ukraine but still lacks its stated goals. Analysts disagree whether Putin seeks limited territorial gains or political control over all of Ukraine. U.S.‑led talks hinge on territorial concessions Kyiv rejects. With no viable security guarantees, the war’s fifth year begins without a credible path to peace.
Four years into Russia’s invasion, Ukraine faces a grinding stalemate as Western aid shifts. U.S. support has sharply declined while Europe shoulders most military and financial assistance. Sanctions strain but don’t break Russia. Ukraine demands air defense and sustained backing to prevent further losses and secure its future.
Munich 2026 revealed a continent in transition: spending more, planning further ahead, and finally treating defense as a core function of statehood rather than a budgetary inconvenience. But it also revealed a Europe still psychologically tethered to Washington, even as Washington signals that its patience, priorities, and commitments are no longer what they once were.
