On the thirteenth day of the war, two oil tankers burned in Iraqi waters, a new supreme leader spoke for the first time from hiding, and the world’s largest-ever release of emergency oil reserves failed to stop crude from climbing back above $100 a barrel. The International Energy Agency declared the war was causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, warning that supplies would plunge by 8 million barrels per day this month. The conflict that Washington promised would be swift is metastasizing — from the skies over Tehran to the shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf, from the suburbs of Beirut to the oil terminals of Basra.
Mojtaba Khamenei Breaks His Silence
In a statement that Iranian media attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and keep up attacks on US bases in the region. But it’s unclear whether the statement was from 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei himself. He did not appear in the broadcast. Another person was heard reading out the remarks on Iranian state media, with a photo of Khamenei posted on the TV screen. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he “wouldn’t take out any life insurance” on Iran’s new supreme leader.
Khamenei said his country would avenge the blood of its martyrs and that the United States must close all of its bases in the region. He said the strait should remain shut to put pressure on the enemy. Hours later, Iran’s ambassador to the UN appeared to soften the message. “We are not going to close the Strait of Hormuz,” Amir Saeid Iravani told reporters. “But it is our inherent right to preserve the peace and security in this waterway.” The contradictory statements — one from a hidden leader demanding closure, another from a diplomat denying it — captured the internal tensions of a regime fighting a war while trying to hold itself together.
The Sea Burns
Two oil tankers — the Maltese-flagged Zefyros and the Marshallese-flagged Safesea Vishnu — were set ablaze in Iraqi waters after an Iranian underwater drone or explosive boat attack, killing one Indian national and marking the first extension of Iran’s maritime campaign into Iraqi territorial waters. Iraq’s oil ports subsequently halted operations completely, closing the last functioning export corridor in the northern Persian Gulf.
A New York Times visual investigation found 16 attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters since February 28, killing eight seafarers and leaving one missing. The attacks targeted 10 tankers, three container ships, three bulk carriers, and one tugboat. Emergency crews in Oman battled a fire at fuel storage tanks after a drone hit a tank at the port of Salalah. Bahrain said Iranian attacks targeted fuel tanks in the country’s north. Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry said two drones heading toward the Shaybah oilfield were intercepted over the Empty Quarter desert.
Iran’s armed forces command issued the day’s most ominous warning: any strike on Iranian energy infrastructure or ports would be met with a “crushing and devastating response,” and “all oil and gas infrastructure in the region” in which the US and its allies have interests would be “set on fire and destroyed.”
The Humanitarian Catastrophe
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees said that as many as 3.2 million people — representing between 600,000 and one million Iranian households — have been forcibly displaced since the war began on February 28. The UNHCR said this wave of internal displacement is the fastest and largest in the region in decades. Most are reportedly fleeing from Tehran and other major urban areas toward the north of the country and rural areas to seek safety. The organization warned that the continuation of military operations without any prospect of a ceasefire will inevitably lead to a doubling of these numbers, emphasizing that “the capacity of temporary shelters inside Iran has reached its limit.”
Iranian and Lebanese health officials and Israeli authorities have reported more than 1,300 people killed in Iran, 687 in Lebanon, and 12 in Israel. The war has killed around 2,000 people total and caused the biggest disruption to global energy supplies since the 1970s. In Lebanon, the number of people displaced since March 2 has risen to 816,000. The Israeli military issued a sweeping displacement order for all residents south of the Zahrani River, extending its evacuation zone even further north.
Oil Reserves Can’t Plug a War
IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil into the global market — the largest release of emergency oil stocks in history. The US Energy Department said it would contribute 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve starting next week. The moves failed to drive down the price of Brent crude, which climbed back over $100 a barrel.
Trump posted on social media that the United States “is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” Senator Mark Kelly responded: “The only ones benefiting from gas prices skyrocketing are the big oil companies.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Trump was authorizing countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea as a short-term measure to increase global supply.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian outlined terms for ending the war: “The only way to end this war — ignited by the Zionist regime and US — is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression.” Trump has rejected all conditions. The Pentagon estimates the first week of the war cost $11.3 billion, with $5 billion spent on munitions alone in the first two days.
The cost of PATRIOT and THAAD interceptors are $4 million and $12 million respectively, as opposed to $50,000 for producing a Shahed drone. According to analysts, “the math just isn’t in US favor.” Thirteen days in, neither is much else.
Original analysis inspired by Middle East Eye Editorial Staff from Middle East Eye. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
By ThinkTanksMonitor
