Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Tuesday, March 10, 2026, that the day would bring “the most intense” strikes inside Iran since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. Standing beside him, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iranian ballistic missile attacks have fallen 90% and one-way attack drones have decreased significantly since the campaign’s opening hours. Asked whether Iranian resistance had exceeded expectations, Caine was blunt: “I think they’re fighting, and I respect that, but I don’t think they’re more formidable than what we thought”. The United States has struck more than 5,000 targets across Iran in eleven days, including over 50 naval vessels and several drone factories.
Yet the Pentagon’s confidence sits uneasily alongside mounting casualties, a paralyzed global oil artery, and a humanitarian emergency spreading across the region. The gap between Washington’s victory narrative and the war’s widening consequences grows wider by the day.
The Hormuz Stranglehold
The war’s most consequential front may not be in Iran at all but in the 21-mile-wide strait off its southern coast. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively collapsed, with transit down to roughly 10% of normal levels as of March 9. Brent crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years, reaching a peak of nearly $120 before settling closer to $90 on Tuesday. The national average US gas price has shot up to $3.48 per gallon, a 16% jump in a single week.
Caine said military leaders are looking at “a range of options” for escorting tankers and are continuing to hunt mine-laying vessels. Trump himself has threatened that any move by Iran to block oil flows would trigger a response “TWENTY TIMES HARDER”. However, the shipping industry remains wary; analysts warn that providing protection for all tankers is unrealistic given the high number of warships required.
The economic damage is spreading far beyond fuel markets. The conflict is driving up fertilizer prices and threatening food shortages in poor countries. The UN and other agencies have warned that every 10% increase in oil prices significantly impacts global stability. Humanitarian shipments, such as those to Sudan, are facing delays as vessels reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the conflict zone.
Cluster Bombs Rain on Israeli Cities
On the ground in Israel, a lethal new threat has emerged. The IDF assesses that roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles Iran has launched toward Israel have been armed with cluster bomb warheads. These warheads scatter dozens of submunitions over a wide radius, which are difficult to intercept and aimed at population centers.
The results have already proven deadly. Two construction workers—one identified as 62-year-old Rustam Golomov—were killed Monday at a site in central Israel by submunitions from an Iranian cluster warhead. Paramedics described “difficult scenes” with casualties suffering from severe shrapnel injuries. Unexploded bomblets have been found scattered across residential areas, and electricity infrastructure has been damaged in multiple locations.
Cyber Warfare and the Shadow Front
A parallel battle is being fought in cyberspace. Israel’s national cybersecurity directorate identified dozens of Iranian breaches into security cameras for espionage purposes since the war began. Cyberintelligence experts believe these images are used to assess strike damage or gather intelligence on targeted locations. Meanwhile, Iran has spent much of 2026 facing severe internet blackouts as government-imposed shutdowns attempt to control the flow of information amid heavy bombardment.
The Endgame Gap
The Trump administration has given conflicting messages about the war’s duration. Trump told CBS the campaign was “very complete, pretty much,” and claimed Iran’s military capabilities were being “eviscerated”. In contrast, Hegseth stated the war would end on “our timeline” and continue until the enemy is “decisively defeated”.
Iran signals it is prepared for a long fight. Security official Ali Larijani wrote on X that Iran “doesn’t fear your empty threats” and warned the U.S. to be careful not to “get eliminated yourself”. While reporting is difficult to verify, monitor groups estimate over 4,300 people have been killed in the first ten days of the war, including at least 390 civilians. Seven US service members have died, and roughly 140 have been wounded.
Original analysis inspired by Asharq Al-Awsat Editorial Staff from Asharq Al-Awsat. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
By ThinkTanksMonitor
Tags:
Categories: Iran | USA | Palestine and Israel | War, Defense & Security | Economics & Energy
