The Middle East stands on the precipice of what could be a third Gulf War, as geopolitical tensions in the region continue to escalate. With the United States and Israel intensifying their military postures against Iran, the battle for the survival of the Islamic Republic has become a defining issue that affects not just Tehran but the entire Arab world.
A Powder Keg in the Gulf: The Threat of Military Escalation
The U.S. military’s presence in the region has ramped up significantly, with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group moving into proximity with Iranian shores, while F-15E Strike Eagles and B-52 bombers have been dispatched to Jordan and Qatar. Israeli media reports suggest that the U.S. is also preparing to bolster its defenses in the region, with the arrival of a Thaad air-defense battery in the coming days. These military movements signify a dire escalation and the growing possibility of conflict.
Israel’s role is also pivotal. Reports indicate that the U.S. may receive logistical and intelligence support from countries like the UAE, Jordan, and the UK in the event of a military operation against Iran. Yet, Iran has warned that it will retaliate not just against Israel and U.S. military installations but against any nation supporting such actions. A senior Iranian official recently remarked that in the next confrontation, the UAE could expect heavy consequences for its alignment with U.S. military strategies against Iran.
This rhetoric underscores Iran’s determination to defend its sovereignty at all costs. Tehran has signaled that, unlike previous confrontations where it largely reacted defensively, this time it will take the fight to those involved in its destabilization efforts, with the UAE potentially becoming a direct target.
The Proxy War: Israel, the UAE, and Azerbaijan
The increasingly tense situation surrounding Iran’s national security is deeply intertwined with the actions of its adversaries. In particular, Israel’s efforts to utilize regional actors like Azerbaijan and the UAE in its “dirty war” against Iran have intensified hostilities. Tehran has warned that the UAE, by providing logistical support for U.S. military operations, has crossed a line, exacerbating the already volatile regional dynamic.
Israel’s aim to destabilize Iran through these proxy alliances has not gone unnoticed. Tehran’s military response has been unequivocal, asserting that any further escalation will result in retaliation that extends well beyond the usual targets. Iran’s commitment to a proactive defense strategy signals a shift from merely surviving to asserting its position in the face of overwhelming external pressure.
Domestic Unrest: Economic Crisis and External Manipulation
Iran’s internal unrest, sparked by economic instability and exacerbated by years of crippling sanctions, has been a major point of focus. The death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 triggered widespread protests, and the economic collapse under the weight of U.S. sanctions has only deepened the resentment. The sanctions imposed during Donald Trump’s presidency and continued under Joe Biden’s administration have severely weakened Iran’s economy, hitting the working class hardest.
But these internal crises are not purely domestic; external forces, including Western and Israeli intelligence agencies, have been accused of stoking unrest. The Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, has openly supported protests in Iran, encouraging civil disobedience and sabotage to undermine the government. This foreign interference has further complicated the internal dynamics, blending genuine economic grievances with external manipulation aimed at regime change.
The unrest, while fueled by economic hardship, has been portrayed in Western media as a broader struggle for democracy and human rights. However, Iran views this narrative with suspicion, considering the involvement of foreign powers like Israel in inflaming these protests. Iran’s government has vowed to protect its sovereignty, even as it faces mounting internal and external pressures.
The Changing Dynamics in the Arab World
One of the most significant developments in recent years is the shift in the Arab world’s stance toward Iran. For years, the Sunni Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, viewed Iran as a major threat due to its support for armed groups across the region. However, a shift in perspective is underway.
The current geopolitical climate has led many Arab nations to reconsider their positions. Iran is increasingly seen not as a regional aggressor but as a fellow state fighting for its survival against external threats. This change in perception has particularly manifested in Saudi Arabia, which had been on the brink of normalizing relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords but has now distanced itself from Israel.
The shift in Saudi Arabia’s approach is partly driven by the growing realization that Iran’s fight is one for regional sovereignty and independence—a battle that resonates with many Arab states that fear Israel’s growing influence. The UAE, once a close ally of Saudi Arabia, has aligned itself with Israel on several fronts, but this has increasingly alienated it from other Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, which now views the UAE’s actions as a betrayal of Arab unity.
Israel’s Fragmentation Policy: A Regional Reckoning
Israel’s policies in the region have long been aimed at destabilizing neighboring states to fragment them and ensure its own dominance. This strategy has been evident in the ongoing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, as well as Israel’s aggressive actions in Gaza. Netanyahu’s government has been particularly vocal about reshaping the Middle East in Israel’s favor, but this approach has faced significant pushback.
One of Israel’s primary objectives has been to weaken Syria, a key regional player, and to prevent its re-emergence as a sovereign state. Israel’s bombing raids in 2024 on Syria, and its ongoing occupation of the Golan Heights, reflect this desire to fragment its neighbors. However, Israel’s actions have had the opposite effect, particularly in Syria, where the Assad regime has increasingly unified the country in the face of Israeli aggression.
As Israel’s policy of fragmentation unfolds, the broader Middle East is beginning to unite in opposition. The rise of new military pacts, including potential defense agreements between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, signals the growing regional alignment against Israel’s ambitions. These pacts reflect a broader strategy of collective defense, with Arab states and Turkey recognizing that only through unity can they contain Israel’s military power.
Iran’s Battle for Survival: A Regional Struggle
Iran’s fight for survival is not just about preserving its own sovereignty—it is a broader struggle for regional stability and independence. As Israel continues its policy of fragmentation, the Arab world’s increasing support for Iran’s sovereignty marks a critical turning point. The Arab world, which once viewed Iran as a regional rival, now sees it as a key player in resisting Israeli dominance and foreign interference.
The battle for Iran’s survival is inherently tied to the future of the Middle East. Iran’s sovereignty is inextricably linked to the stability of the region. If Iran falls, the entire region risks descending into chaos, with millions of refugees and the collapse of national borders. The UAE’s growing role in supporting Israel against Iran is a dangerous gamble that could have catastrophic consequences for all Arab states.
Conclusion: Regional Solidarity in the Face of External Aggression
As Iran faces mounting threats from Israel and the United States, the Arab world must stand in solidarity with Iran. The fight for Iran’s survival is not just Iran’s fight—it is a fight for the sovereignty and stability of the entire region. Arab states must put aside their historical grievances with Iran and focus on the common goal of preserving the independence and integrity of their nations. The future of the Middle East hinges on the success of this solidarity.
Original analysis inspired by David Hearst from Middle East Eye. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
