The end of New START has opened the door to unconstrained U.S.–Russia nuclear expansion just as China accelerates its own buildup, creating a volatile three‑way arms race with no verification, no guardrails, and rising risks of miscalculation.
The collapse of New START and China’s rapid nuclear buildup have ended decades of structured restraint, creating an unstable three‑way arms race with no treaties, no verification, and rising risks of miscalculation in a multipolar nuclear world.
Missile defense systems meant to deter attacks are instead encouraging riskier offensives, driving arms races and destabilizing global security as nations pursue shields like THAAD and the Golden Dome under the illusion of strategic safety.
Tehran’s refusal to abandon domestic enrichment, paired with U.S. military pressure and sanctions, leaves the Muscat talks as a fragile pause rather than real progress, with internal Iranian rifts and Israeli threat perceptions further narrowing the diplomatic window.
Western hesitation has prolonged a brutal stalemate in Ukraine, where massive casualties, slow aid, and delayed weapons have strengthened Russia’s attritional strategy while forcing Kyiv to innovate militarily and Europe to rearm unevenly, leaving the war’s outcome tied to political will rather than battlefield shifts.
In early February 2026, the Persian Gulf sits at a knife-edge. The “Oman Talks,” which began on February 6, represent a desperate diplomatic attempt to avert a third Gulf War. While Washington views its “Armada” and the recent capture of Venezuela’s Maduro as leverage to force a total Iranian capitulation, Tehran views the same events as an existential threat that demands unconstrained asymmetric retaliation.
In early 2026, Washington’s “Sheriff of Capitalism” doctrine has formalised a shift from a rules-based global order to one defined by resource nationalism and coercive statecraft. This strategy was punctuated by the dramatic January 3, 2026, capture of Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent tariff war against European allies over the sovereignty of Greenland.
In early 2026, the Western Hemisphere is witnessing a seismic shift in geopolitical alignment. Driven by the December 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) and the implementation of the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, Washington has re-prioritized the Americas as its primary strategic theater. This realignment focuses on three pillars: the exclusion of non-hemispheric powers (China and Russia), the securitization of migration and trade, and the direct use of “regime change” as a tool of stability.
The recent surge in U.S. force posture—centered on the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group on January 26, 2026—has brought the “maximum pressure” campaign to a critical kinetic threshold. This buildup is the largest since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, when B-2 stealth bombers struck Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
The New START treaty’s February 2026 expiration ended the era of bilateral arms control. With China’s arsenal exceeding 600 warheads and Iran’s enrichment nearing weapons-grade, the April NPT Review Conference faces a terminal crisis. Global stability now hinges on managing hypersonic technology and AI-integrated command systems amidst total verification collapse.
This report analyzes the rapid consolidation of the Israel-Greece-Cyprus trilateral partnership into a robust Eastern Mediterranean defense bloc as of early 2026. What was once an energy-focused cooperative has shifted into a “structural strategic alignment,” characterized by massive arms deals and institutionalized military coordination.
This analysis examines how a trilateral, sea-based missile defense architecture between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea could neutralize the evolving North Korean Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) threat. By moving away from the “sole defender” model depicted in the 2025 thriller A House of Dynamite, the alliance can leverage forward-deployed Aegis assets to create a layered, multi-azimuth defense that buys critical decision-making time.
