Category: Middle East

Three police officers in navy blue uniforms with "3A" patches on their backs walking down a city street

The Silent Front: How the Middle East Conflict Has Metastasized in Europe

The European security landscape has transformed dramatically since October 2023, with a new, less visible front emerging within the EU. As attention is focused on the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, intelligence assessments reveal that Europe has become a logistical and operational theater for terrorist organizations. This shift signifies a hybrid threat infrastructure, blurring the lines between political activism, illicit finance, and paramilitary planning. Security services in Western Europe are increasingly alarmed by a “shadow war,” where charitable networks and student movements may unwittingly support groups like Hamas in establishing their presence in the West.

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A close-up of Donald Trump speaking at a summit table with a "United States" nameplate and a small American flag in front of him

Middle East Strategic Reorientation: From Direct Engagement to Containment

The 2025 National Security Strategy marks a significant shift in U.S. policy towards the Middle East, transitioning from extensive political and military involvement to a limited engagement prioritizing energy security and hindering regional adversaries. This change prompts important inquiries regarding the alignment of the new assumptions with the actual dynamics of the region.

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A line of Israeli Merkava tanks and a supply truck moving along a paved road next to a barbed-wire border fence

Israeli Military Expansion in Syria Risks Strategic Overextension Despite Initial Advantages

Twelve months after Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Israeli forces have carried out over 600 military operations in Syria, averaging nearly two daily. This extensive campaign, alongside the occupation of territories beyond the 1974 disengagement lines, illustrates a classic pattern of overreach, where tactical dominance leads to strategic vulnerability due to commitments across multiple fronts without clear objectives.

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Donald Trump sitting at his desk in the Oval Office, speaking to a delegation of officials seated across from him

Damascus Gains International Legitimacy Through White House Visit Yet Internal Challenges Persist

Ahmed al-Sharaa’s meeting with President Trump on November 10 marked a significant diplomatic achievement for Syria, resulting in the removal of UN Security Council sanctions and a suspension of the Caesar Act for six months. However, consolidating this international recognition domestically is challenging due to Kurdish forces’ resistance to integration, demands for autonomy from Druze leaders, and Israeli military expansion in southern Syria.

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United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres shaking hands with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani in front of UN and Iraqi flags

Regional Powers Position Mediation Capacity as Alternative to Civilizational Conflict Paradigm

UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s visits to Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iraq mark a potential shift from external crisis management to regional diplomatic leadership, particularly highlighted by the formal closure of UNAMI after 22 years. This development challenges Samuel Huntington’s “clash of civilizations” framework by illustrating how culturally connected states can effectively mediate conflicts that hinder international institutions.

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A jigsaw puzzle where the pieces show the American flag, with a missing piece being replaced by a dark piece featuring a map of the Middle East

Business Entanglements Shape American Foreign Policy Execution

The intersection of commercial interests and diplomatic decision-making is a defining feature of current American foreign policy, as evidenced by dropped prosecutions, controversial pardons, and Gulf investments. These cases highlight the influence of personal business relationships on international relations, raising questions about conflict of interest, transparency, and strategic coherence.

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A meeting of the UN Security Council, with an overlay graphic showing the UN logo, "Resolution 2803," and a partitioned map of Gaza

Resolution 2803 Implementation Risks Replicating Occupation Under International Mandate

UN Security Council Resolution 2803, passed on November 17, 2025, endorses Trump’s Gaza peace plan, establishing a U.S.-chaired Board of Peace and an International Stabilization Force with broad powers. This plan follows UN Commission of Inquiry findings of Israel’s genocide actions against Palestinians, highlighting a critical tension between the goals of stabilization and the demands for accountability.

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A group of diplomats and delegates, including the U.S. representative, raising their hands to vote at a United Nations Security Council session

The Trump Plan Legitimized: UNSC Resolution 2803 and the Partitioning of Gaza

The geopolitical landscape of the Levant underwent a significant shift in late 2025 with the UN Security Council adopting Resolution 2803, which endorses the US strategy for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip. The resolution, passed with 13 votes in favor and abstentions from Russia and China, provides legal support for the “Trump Plan.” It mandates the establishment of a transitional administration and an international security framework, marking the start of a new phase in the conflict characterized by disarmament mandates, territorial divisions, and internal Palestinian discord.

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