Ahmed al-Sharaa’s administration has completed its first year governing Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s December 2024 collapse, achieving diplomatic successes while confronting internal challenges threatening territorial integrity. The former Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader, who transitioned from designated terrorist to recognized president, secured Western support—including US terrorist delisting in July 2025 and UK delisting in October—yet struggles to establish authority over Syria’s fractured sectarian landscape.
The administration’s primary accomplishment lies in diplomatic normalization. President Trump met Sharaa in Saudi Arabia in May 2025, the first American-Syrian presidential encounter since 2000, while Sharaa visited France and addressed the UN General Assembly. This rehabilitation facilitated Caesar Act sanctions lifting and Syria’s rejoining SWIFT, creating conditions for economic recovery.
Diplomatic Gains and Sanction Relief
The UN Security Council removed terrorism sanctions against Sharaa in November, citing commitments on humanitarian access and counterterrorism. The EU suspended sanctions on energy and banking sectors in February, while the US progressively dismantled restrictions. This enabled Syria’s reintegration into global financial systems, with international companies resuming operations and investment memorandums totaling $28 billion signed across infrastructure sectors.
The government’s legitimacy rests partly on global coalition against Islamic State membership achieved in November 2025, though ISIS activity persists in central provinces.
Constitutional Framework and Political Consolidation
Sharaa signed the Interim Constitution in March 2025 following a hastily convened National Dialogue Conference with undisclosed delegate selection criteria. The five-year framework establishes a presidential system concentrating executive, legislative, and judicial authority in Sharaa’s hands, eliminating the prime minister position.
The March 2025 government includes token minority representation—one Alawite, one Druze, one Christian, one Kurdish minister among twenty-three positions—while key portfolios remain under HTS control. Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces criticized the constitution as “obstructing democratic transition.” November’s legislative elections produced a parliament with one-third directly appointed by Sharaa, reflecting centralized power consolidation critics describe as lacking genuine pluralism.
Sectarian Violence and Security Failures
The administration’s gravest setback involves widespread sectarian violence that has claimed thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians. Armed clashes in Syria’s coastal regions during March 2025 killed more than 1,000 civilians, with UN human rights officials documenting entire families executed based on sectarian identity. The violence primarily targeted Alawite communities—Bashar al-Assad’s sect—in Latakia and Tartous provinces, though government-affiliated forces faced accusations of participating in massacres rather than preventing them.
Violence in Suwayda province during July 2025 between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes left over 1,000 dead and displaced 128,000 civilians, with human rights organizations accusing transitional forces of siding with Bedouins, conducting summary executions, and looting Druze property. A suicide attack on a Damascus church in June 2025 killed twenty-five people, representing the largest assault on Syrian Christians since 1860. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project analysis indicates that five provinces experiencing sectarian violence accounted for 60% of Syria’s 7,692 conflict-related deaths in 2025.
The security crisis stems from multiple converging factors: widespread weapons availability due to inadequate disarmament; inexperienced security personnel unable to maintain order; delayed transitional justice mechanisms that encouraged revenge killings; and the emergence of new extremist formations like Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah exploiting anti-Alawite sentiment. The administration established investigative commissions to examine coastal massacres and Suwayda violence, with trials of approximately 565 individuals beginning in November, yet critics argue proceedings lack transparency and fail to address the sectarian nature of killings.
Economic Challenges and Governance Deficiencies
Despite sanctions relief, Syria’s economic situation remains precarious. The administration pursued market liberalization including subsidy elimination and privatization without adequate safety nets, impacting poor and middle-class populations. Although wages increased, rising service costs eroded purchasing power and created inflation risks.
Key positions feature loyalists rather than qualified professionals, with Sharaa’s brother controlling the General Secretariat that directs economic policy. Asset restructuring efforts seizing $1.6 billion from Assad-era businessmen effectively replaced one oligarchy with another. IMF assessments noted recovery signs but analysts warn corruption remains endemic. Unemployment remains extremely high while poverty affects nearly 90% of society.
Israeli Interference and Regional Complications
Israel’s military posture toward Syria significantly constrains Damascus’s sovereignty and complicates internal dynamics. Since December 2024, Israel has destroyed Syrian military assets, advanced into southern Syria, and established positions near Damascus while conducting extensive air strikes. Israeli strategy appears focused on preventing Syrian military reconstruction, maintaining territorial fragmentation through support for Druze and Kurdish autonomy movements, and ensuring Iranian and Hezbollah cannot rebuild influence networks destroyed during 2025 confrontations.
The Sharaa administration, recognizing power imbalances and lacking military capacity for confrontation, has adopted a disengagement strategy relying on Trump administration diplomatic intervention. However, Israeli support for minority federalism demands directly conflicts with Sharaa’s stated commitment that Syrian “unity is a red line,” creating tensions that will likely persist as obstacles to comprehensive security arrangements or normalization agreements.
Future Trajectory and Systemic Vulnerabilities
UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen characterized Syria’s transition as “on a knife-edge” in August 2025, reflecting the interconnected nature of challenges confronting the administration. Diplomatic successes remain contingent on sustained international consensus and regional support, while domestic stability requires broadening governance beyond HTS dominance to include meaningful participation from diverse communities. Economic improvements depend on fulfilling foreign commitments, strengthening institutional capacity, and addressing endemic corruption that survived regime change.
The administration’s centralized approach—appointing loyalists, limiting pluralism, and conducting rapid political procedures that appear symbolic rather than genuinely inclusive—has generated mistrust particularly among Kurdish, Druze, and Alawite populations. Chatham House analysis emphasizes that reductive “sectarian violence” framing obscures Sharaa’s governance failures in delivering democratic reforms, while regional and Western states must strongly encourage participatory processes, enlarged advisory circles, and genuine transitional justice to prevent Syria’s fragmentation.
One year after Assad’s fall, Syria exhibits continued geographic, security, political, and economic fluidity absent a practical roadmap toward stability. The interconnected risk system—where Israeli interference fuels internal divisions, which economic decline exacerbates, collectively hindering state functionality—suggests the transitional phase will extend considerably beyond initial expectations. Whether Sharaa can balance international legitimacy with domestic inclusivity will determine Syria’s trajectory toward unified statehood or prolonged fragmentation.
Original analysis by The Levant Studies Unit from Emirates Policy Center. Republished with additional research and verification by ThinkTanksMonitor.
