China’s November 2025 white paper on arms control prioritizes AI, cyberspace and outer space governance over traditional nuclear transparency—signaling strategic repositioning from reactive participant to proactive rule-maker for domains where Western dominance remains incomplete. This document arrives precisely when DeepSeek-R1’s January release demonstrated Chinese AI capabilities matching American frontier models while Trump administration economic rebalancing creates potential bilateral cooperation openings.
Nuclear Pledges Provide Diplomatic Cover for Technological Competition
The white paper reaffirms familiar positions: no-first-use nuclear doctrine, minimum deterrence arsenal, and 1996 nuclear testing moratorium. Beijing emphasized it hosted January 2019 P5 Beijing Conference restarting stalled cooperation and promoted January 2022 Joint Statement preventing nuclear war among five nuclear-weapon states.
Director Guo Xiaobing characterized the document as demonstrating “China’s role as responsible major country” while emphasizing new vision combining “justice, cooperation, balance and effectiveness”. This rhetoric contrasts deliberately with Russian New START suspension and American modernization programs—burnishing Beijing’s image as restraint advocate while rivals pursue arsenal expansion.
Yet nuclear transparency sections remain vague. The white paper avoids disclosing warhead numbers while Pentagon estimates suggest Chinese nuclear forces grew from approximately 500 operational warheads in 2023 to potentially 1,500 by 2035. This expansion contradicts minimum deterrence claims, suggesting nuclear pledges function primarily as diplomatic positioning rather than operational constraints.
Emerging Domains Identified as Governance Battlegrounds
The document’s strategic significance emerges through forward-looking sections. It declares outer space, cyberspace and AI as “new frontiers for human development” and “new territories of global governance” requiring multilateral frameworks. China proposes UN play “pivotal role in fostering global governance framework” with “increased representation and voice of developing countries”.
This elevates UN forums where Chinese Security Council veto and Global South alliances provide disproportionate influence while preempting Western-led minilateral arrangements. The white paper explicitly “opposes abusing concept of national security and export control measures”—direct criticism of American semiconductor restrictions—while advocating “balancing nonproliferation obligations with rights to peaceful uses of science and technology.”
AI governance proposals gain credibility through recent Chinese technological achievements. DeepSeek-R1 released January 20, 2025, matched OpenAI’s o1 reasoning capabilities despite development costs reportedly $6 million versus $100 million for GPT-4 and using approximately one-tenth computing power of Meta’s comparable models. The model surpassed ChatGPT as most-downloaded iOS app in America by January 27, triggering 18% Nvidia share price decline.
MIT Technology Review noted DeepSeek’s success “even more remarkable given constraints facing Chinese AI companies from increasing US export controls”. Rather than weakening capabilities, sanctions drove efficiency-focused innovation. Beijing amended Cybersecurity Law in October addressing AI risks while mandating incident reporting—demonstrating regulatory frameworks matching technical advancement.
UN Centralization Strategy Opposes Western Minilateralism
Beijing’s institutional preference reveals calculated power play. The white paper advocates “universal participation of all countries” through UN consensus-building—effectively opposing arrangements like U.S.-led Artemis Accords governing lunar resource extraction or Wassenaar Arrangement controlling dual-use technology exports. These Western-dominated frameworks exclude Chinese participation or diminish Beijing’s influence.
China hosted UN Open-Ended Working Group on ICT security through 2025, positioning itself as architect of equitable digital governance while diluting Western dominance in forums like Budapest Convention on Cybercrime. For outer space, the white paper advocates treaties preventing weaponization—conveniently ignoring Chinese hypersonic tests and anti-satellite demonstrations that U.S. Space Force leaders describe as “concerning” in development pace.
This dual-use investment strategy embeds in civil-military fusion frameworks. U.S.-China Economic Security Review Commission’s 2025 report warned Beijing’s quantum computing and commercial rocketry threaten hollowing global standards favoring Chinese overcapacity. Yet Trump’s December 2025 National Security Strategy emphasizing economic rebalancing with China potentially creates bilateral cooperation openings—particularly around AI safety where administration eased export barriers to foster innovation.
Strategic Timing Amid American Policy Recalibration
White paper release coincides with shifting American priorities. Trump NSS signals pivot toward economic reciprocity over ideological confrontation, directing billions toward domestic AI infrastructure through initiatives like Stargate while revoking prior safety barriers. This “America First” lens stressing mutually advantageous rules could inadvertently align with Chinese calls for equitable governance—particularly where Beijing’s state-backed scaling threatens outpacing Washington’s private-sector advantages.
The confluence creates space for pragmatic engagement. Both powers recognize autonomous systems compress decision loops to milliseconds, cyber tools blur war/peace distinctions, and space assets transform strategic calculations. As U.S.-China Economic Security Review Commission noted, dual-use investments threaten undermining Cold War-era deterrence through algorithmic unpredictability.
Yet coordination faces fundamental obstacles. American allies prioritize maintaining technological edges through export controls and coordinated restrictions. European Union Institute for Security Studies characterized DeepSeek’s breakthrough as challenging “assumptions about US ‘small yard, high fence’ strategy effectiveness” while signaling shift toward plural AI ecosystem beyond American-Chinese duopoly.
Governance Architecture Proposals Mask Power Consolidation
Beijing positions arms control frameworks as equity-promoting multilateralism. Guo Xiaobing emphasized the white paper “fully safeguards rights of developing countries” while advocating “justice, cooperation, balance and effectiveness” principles. This language resonates with Global South nations frustrated by Western-dominated institutions excluding their participation.
However, Chinese governance proposals advance strategic interests more than universal principles. Centralizing rulemaking through UN forums where Beijing wields veto power while opposing minilateral arrangements prevents coalition formation against Chinese technology advancement. The white paper explicitly opposes export controls restricting “developing countries’ rights to peaceful use of technology”—language targeting American semiconductor restrictions while obscuring how Chinese regulations similarly constrain foreign access.
The fundamental tension persists: Beijing preaches restraint in nuclear domains while accelerating investment in technologies potentially upending traditional deterrence. Autonomous weapons, quantum computing and AI-enabled cyber capabilities compress reaction times below human decision thresholds—creating instability risks that traditional arms control frameworks cannot address. Whether Chinese governance proposals genuinely mitigate these dangers or primarily serve consolidating technological advantage remains determining question.
Original analysis inspired by Imran Khalid from Foreign Policy in Focus. Additional research and verification conducted through multiple sources.
