Persian Gulf Countries – Page 2 – think tanks monitor

The national flags of Russia and Saudi Arabia waving against a clear blue sky.

Why Russia Is Not Saudi Arabia:

June 25, 2026

While drone strikes on energy infrastructure have drawn comparisons to the 2019 Abqaiq attack on Saudi Arabia, the strategic outcomes differ drastically due to the compounding effect of Western sanctions. Unlike Saudi Arabia, which leveraged open global markets to restore capacity within weeks, Russia faces crippling repair delays for specialized refinery components. This article examines the intersection of drone-driven attrition and economic isolation, arguing that sanctions are now functioning as a force multiplier that prevents Russia from recovering from modern, low-cost precision strikes.

J.D. Vance speaking at a podium in front of a blue background during a professional summit event.

Vance’s Blind Spot: Why Israel Is America’s Most Strategic Ally

June 23, 2026

The recent public criticisms leveled by Vice President JD Vance against Israeli leadership reveal a fundamental misunderstanding of the U.S.-Israel security partnership. By framing the relationship through a lens of client-state dependence, the administration risks undermining the operational integration that secures American interests across the Middle East. This article argues that treating strategic allies as political liabilities rather than critical assets—particularly while pursuing engagement with regional adversaries—signals a dangerous erosion of credibility that may compel partners to seek greater security diversification.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump seated at a formal meeting table.

After the Iran Deal, Who Will Trust Trump Again?

June 21, 2026

In the aftermath of the Iran war, this analysis explores the erosion of U.S. credibility among Middle Eastern allies. We evaluate the strategic implications of a ceasefire that has left regional security concerns unaddressed, the potential for renewed instability, and why the “trust deficit” created by this outcome may define American foreign policy for years to come.

Donald Trump speaking at a podium in front of the White House seal.

The Iran Ceasefire Exposes the Limits of American Power

June 17, 2026

Following over three months of intense conflict, the United States and Iran have reached a framework memorandum of understanding (MoU) to formalize a ceasefire and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. While this agreement provides a critical 60-day window to negotiate outstanding nuclear and security concerns, it stops short of a permanent resolution. This analysis examines the fragility of the current truce, the resilience of Iran’s institutional leadership despite significant infrastructure losses, and the profound diplomatic hurdles that remain, including skepticism from regional allies and the daunting task of codifying a lasting peace in a fundamentally reshaped Middle Eastern security landscape.

A collection of international newspapers featuring headlines about geopolitical instability and Donald Trump.

No Winners: How the Iran War Left Every Power Worse Off

June 16, 2026

This analysis argues that the recent Iran conflict resulted in a strategic failure for all major stakeholders. While regimes survived and tactical strikes occurred, the war eroded economic stability, shattered regional trust, and failed to establish a durable security architecture. By examining the structural damage to energy corridors and the hardening of nuclear ambitions, the piece demonstrates that the conflict left the Middle East more fragile and unpredictable, fundamentally undermining the influence of both regional and global powers.

Donald Trump wearing a "USA" cap sitting at a table during a strategic briefing with advisors.

The Strategic Failure of Trump’s High-Stakes War with Iran

June 15, 2026

This article evaluates the strategic failure of the Trump administration’s Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Initially conceived as a precision strike to catalyze regime collapse, the campaign has instead solidified radical domestic power, triggered asymmetric regional responses, and destabilized global energy markets. By prioritizing tactical action over political reality and destroying diplomatic pathways, the intervention has significantly weakened American deterrence, alienated international allies, and inadvertently accelerated a shift toward a multipolar global order.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan speaking at a podium with Turkish and Israeli flags in the background.

The Iran War Is Handing Turkey a Regional Opportunity It Did Not Ask For

June 6, 2026

The aftermath of the US-Iran conflict has unexpectedly positioned Turkey as a central player in regional security and trade. By leveraging its growing defense industry and anchoring vital alternative trade corridors like the Iraq Development Road, Ankara is capitalizing on Gulf states’ desires for strategic autonomy. This post analyzes how Turkey’s diplomatic maneuvering and new regional alignments, including the emerging Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi-Egypt quartet, are reshaping the Middle Eastern economic and geopolitical landscape.

A U.S. F-16 fighter jet in flight, representing military power and global base presence.

America’s Empire of Bases Is Starting to Cost Its Hosts Too Much

June 5, 2026

This analysis examines the growing strategic liability of the U.S. “empire of bases” in the Middle East. As the ongoing conflict with Iran reveals the vulnerability of host-nation infrastructure—exemplified by the devastating June 3 attack on Kuwait International Airport—we explore how the proliferation of low-cost, high-impact drone and missile technologies has fundamentally inverted the security guarantee the U.S. once provided. We assess whether the increasing risk of hosting U.S. forces will lead to a systemic denial of access, potentially forcing a retraction of American global reach and fundamentally altering the future of U.S. military power.

A city skyline engulfed in thick, dark smoke from an industrial fire or explosion.

UAE’s Facade of Neutrality Crumbles in US-Iran War

May 30, 2026

This analysis examines the erosion of the United Arab Emirates’ neutrality during the 2026 US-Iran conflict. By detailing the UAE’s secret military participation, integration into regional air defense networks, and the subsequent economic and security vulnerabilities created by these choices, we explore how Abu Dhabi has moved from a regional arbiter to a direct, and exposed, participant in the ongoing regional war.

Leaders from Gulf States walking together to discuss regional security and Iran.

Gulf States Draw the Line on a Wider Iran War

May 25, 2026

This analysis examines the evolving diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, highlighting the pivotal role Gulf nations are playing in urging a move away from military conflict. By detailing the economic and political pressures driving both Washington and Tehran toward a negotiated settlement, the report evaluates the structure of the proposed 60-day diplomatic framework and the significant hurdles remaining regarding nuclear enrichment and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

A man in traditional Emirati attire and glasses speaking behind a white podium featuring the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Affairs emblem.

UAE’s Legal Rhetoric Faces a Credibility Test

May 18, 2026

This analysis examines the growing contradiction between the United Arab Emirates’ diplomatic rhetoric championing international law and its controversial regional foreign policy. By evaluating Emirati involvement in Yemen, Sudan, and the Gaza conflict, the article highlights the credibility test Abu Dhabi faces in balancing strategic interests with global accountability.

A geographical map of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz overlaid with a cargo ship.

The Ceasefire Is Signed, the Economic War Has Just Begun

April 13, 2026

The 2026 Iran War has triggered the largest energy supply disruption in history, dwarfing the shocks of 1973 and 1979. While the kinetic exchange has paused, the Strait of Hormuz remains commercially unusable due to a “Tehran Toll” system and a collapse in maritime insurance. With damage to Qatar’s LNG facilities projected to take years to repair, the global economy faces a structural “war premium” that threatens to push major economies into recession and force central banks to keep interest rates elevated through 2026.

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Category: Persian Gulf Countries

Why Russia Is Not Saudi Arabia:

Vance’s Blind Spot: Why Israel Is America’s Most Strategic Ally

After the Iran Deal, Who Will Trust Trump Again?

The Iran Ceasefire Exposes the Limits of American Power

No Winners: How the Iran War Left Every Power Worse Off

The Strategic Failure of Trump’s High-Stakes War with Iran

The Iran War Is Handing Turkey a Regional Opportunity It Did Not Ask For

America’s Empire of Bases Is Starting to Cost Its Hosts Too Much

UAE’s Facade of Neutrality Crumbles in US-Iran War

Gulf States Draw the Line on a Wider Iran War

UAE’s Legal Rhetoric Faces a Credibility Test

The Ceasefire Is Signed, the Economic War Has Just Begun

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