USA – Page 2 – think tanks monitor

A high-angle view of a United States aircraft carrier deck at sea, packed with various fighter jets including F/A-18 Super Hornets, with a mountainous coastline and blue sky in the background.

When Alliance Distances Become Strategic Liabilities: Europe’s Iran Dilemma

February 16, 2026

Europe is trying to perform an impossible balancing act: signal independence from Washington while relying entirely on American military power to deter threats that Europe cannot handle alone. The Iran crisis exposes this contradiction with unusual clarity. At the very moment when Western unity is strategically essential, Europe is drifting into rhetorical autonomy that it cannot operationalize.

A black and white, high-contrast close-up of Donald Trump sitting at a long table during a meeting, looking towards the camera with a stern expression, surrounded by other men in suits who are partially blurred.

The Psychology of Escalation in Foreign Intervention

February 16, 2026

U.S. decision‑making on Iran is increasingly shaped not by structured interagency analysis but by a feedback loop of emotional validation. When a leader repeatedly asks a narrow circle of loyalists whether an action is a “winner,” the question itself becomes a self‑fulfilling prophecy. The result is a foreign policy environment where impulse, affirmation, and narrative gratification override strategic caution.

A close-up portrait of Donald Trump raising a clenched fist, wearing a dark coat and a bright red tie, with a blurred American flag featuring red and white stripes in the background.

The Negotiation Asymmetry: Can Iran’s Concessions Match the Scope of American Demands

February 16, 2026

U.S.–Iran talks are unfolding under extreme imbalance. Washington negotiates with overwhelming military and economic leverage; Tehran negotiates under domestic strain, regional setbacks, and limited great‑power backing. But asymmetry does not guarantee capitulation. It creates a narrow, unstable space where both sides must decide whether compromise or confrontation better protects their core interests.

A close-up view of several silver flagpoles in a row, with multiple European Union flags and one prominent United States flag waving in front of a modern glass office building.

Tariff Barriers and the Reshaping of Global Trade Partnerships

February 16, 2026

The liberal trade order that defined the post‑1945 world is no longer collapsing suddenly — it is dissolving structurally. The rise of protectionism, especially in the United States, is forcing every major economy to redesign its trade strategy in real time. What emerges is not a new system, but a fragmented landscape of overlapping blocs, bilateral deals, and improvised coalitions.

Nouri al-Maliki standing behind a podium with multiple news microphones, wearing a green sash and raising his right hand, surrounded by other men in suits against a green background with red Arabic text.

Iraq’s Political Gridlock: When Foreign Veto Power Collides With Domestic Legitimacy

February 16, 2026

Iraq’s political paralysis is not simply the result of domestic factionalism. It is the predictable outcome of a system where external veto power routinely overrides internal legitimacy. The current standoff over Nouri al‑Maliki’s nomination exposes the structural contradiction at the heart of Iraqi governance: sovereignty exists on paper, but government formation depends on which foreign actor is willing to impose the highest cost.

A group of young boys looking out from behind a black iron-barred window of a bright blue building, with a blurred Venezuelan flag waving in the foreground.

When Legal Order Depends on Sustained Resistance: Sovereignty and the Collapse of Restraint

February 14, 2026

International law has never been self‑enforcing. It works only when states collectively treat violations as intolerable. Once powerful actors discover that coercive territorial change carries minimal cost, the system shifts from rule‑based restraint to power‑based ordering. For states whose security depends on law rather than force, this shift is existential.

Gavin Newsom in a blue suit sitting at a white conference table, gesturing while speaking to three other people in a room with warm yellow walls and a large artistic painting of a face.

When Federal Leadership Falters: Subnational Climate Action Fills Global Policy Void

February 14, 2026

As federal climate leadership becomes inconsistent, subnational governments are stepping into the vacuum, building their own diplomatic networks, regulatory frameworks, and climate alliances. This is not a symbolic gesture — it is the construction of a parallel climate governance system that increasingly shapes global policy.

Marco Rubio speaking at a podium during the Munich Security Conference (MSC), with his image projected on a large screen above him and a seated audience in a grand hall.

Rubio’s Munich Overture Exposes the Fractures in Transatlantic Relations

February 14, 2026

Rubio’s Munich speech was designed to sound like a reset in transatlantic relations, but its omissions and ideological framing revealed that the structural rift between Washington and Europe is widening, not closing.

A medium shot of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi standing together in a formal indoor setting, both smiling slightly at the camera.

Why Tehran Chose Muscat: The Strategic Logic Behind Iran’s Mediation Preferences

February 12, 2026

Iran favors Muscat because Oman offers neutrality, discretion, and insulation from agenda‑expanding pressures, allowing Tehran to control the scope of talks and avoid the political exposure it fears in venues like Istanbul.

A political cartoon showing Donald Trump riding on top of a giant red and white pill labeled "TRUMP-RX," which is rolling down a snowy mountain toward a small Swiss village.

US Drug Pricing Mandate Destabilizes Swiss Pharmaceutical Sector

February 12, 2026

Washington’s pricing mandate is pushing drugmakers to raise European benchmarks and even pull treatments like Roche’s Lunsumio from Switzerland, destabilizing a pharma‑dependent economy and shrinking patient access as companies protect U.S. margins at the expense of smaller markets.

A diverse group of protesters marching on a city street, carrying various flags including the American and Colombian flags, and holding signs such as "Love Your Immigrant Neighbor" with a red heart.

Trump’s Coercive Federalism Mirrors Foreign Intervention Tactics

February 12, 2026

Trump’s bid to nationalize elections and pressure Democratic-led states mirrors his foreign intervention tactics, using federal enforcement and delegitimization to treat domestic opponents as territories to be coerced rather than communities to be governed.

A split-screen image showing a large Russian nuclear submarine with sailors on deck in the top half, and a harbor scene with a smaller black submarine and tall coastal residential buildings in the bottom half.

The End of New START and the Dawn of Unconstrained Nuclear Rivalry

February 12, 2026

The end of New START has opened the door to unconstrained U.S.–Russia nuclear expansion just as China accelerates its own buildup, creating a volatile three‑way arms race with no verification, no guardrails, and rising risks of miscalculation.

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When Alliance Distances Become Strategic Liabilities: Europe’s Iran Dilemma

The Psychology of Escalation in Foreign Intervention

The Negotiation Asymmetry: Can Iran’s Concessions Match the Scope of American Demands

Tariff Barriers and the Reshaping of Global Trade Partnerships

Iraq’s Political Gridlock: When Foreign Veto Power Collides With Domestic Legitimacy

When Legal Order Depends on Sustained Resistance: Sovereignty and the Collapse of Restraint

Rubio’s Munich Overture Exposes the Fractures in Transatlantic Relations

Why Tehran Chose Muscat: The Strategic Logic Behind Iran’s Mediation Preferences

The End of New START and the Dawn of Unconstrained Nuclear Rivalry

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