By early 2026, the global order has moved from a “unipolar” or “multilateral” system toward a fragmented regionalism. With the United States actively dismantling its participation in international organizations, regional blocs have transformed from secondary partners into the primary guarantors of trade, security, and technological standards.
Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy prioritizes economic competition over ideological warfare, reframing China as a commercial rival rather than a systemic threat. By reviving the Monroe Doctrine and demanding allies triple defense spending, the administration seeks “low-cost hegemony” while shifting America’s strategic center of gravity toward the Pacific Rim.
Trump’s 2025 peace push centers on a transactional deal trading Ukrainian NATO aspirations for long-term U.S. security guarantees. The framework involves potential territorial concessions in Donbas and a national referendum, shifting away from previous demands for full Russian withdrawal to prioritize a rapid, comprehensive end to the war.
Trump’s “Operation Southern Spear” leverages a fentanyl WMD designation to bypass Congress, launching military strikes and an oil blockade against Venezuela.
In a major shift toward “business-oriented diplomacy,” President Trump has appointed Detroit entrepreneur Mark Savaya as the U.S. Special Envoy to Iraq. A Chaldean-American with deep regional ties but no traditional diplomatic background, Savaya is tasked with stabilizing Iraq’s economy and curbing Iranian influence. His mission—focused on disarming militias and opening Iraqi oil and energy markets—signals a pragmatic, deal-driven era for U.S.-Iraq relations that prioritizes economic sovereignty over conventional foreign policy.
Economic forecasts suggest modest expansion for the US in 2026, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 2.6% GDP growth driven by AI investment. However, ongoing policy uncertainty from the Trump administration may jeopardize these projections, leading to political disruptions influencing midterm election results. Current indicators are favorable for opposition messaging, as negative consumer sentiment persists and inflation remains a top concern. GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 2%, lower than Biden’s last two years, while unemployment has increased from 4% at Biden’s exit to 4.6% currently.
The post-2024 rise of “Trumpism” in corporate America has significantly waned within a year. As of December 21, Trump’s approval rating stands at 42.8%, with 54% disapproving, while his economic approval plummets to 36%, the lowest recorded. The Democratic Party’s success in the November 2025 gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia by substantial margins highlights the disconnection between Republican actions and voter preferences, revealing a backlash against perceived overreach.
White House claims of being the most transparent and accessible administration are contradicted by actions that dismantle accountability, such as the dismissal of 17 inspectors general and leaving 75% of those positions vacant. Additionally, the defunding of the Council of Inspectors General and the imposition of media restrictions by the Pentagon have created an accountability vacuum, facilitating unchecked executive action.
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s meeting with President Trump on November 10 marked a significant diplomatic achievement for Syria, resulting in the removal of UN Security Council sanctions and a suspension of the Caesar Act for six months. However, consolidating this international recognition domestically is challenging due to Kurdish forces’ resistance to integration, demands for autonomy from Druze leaders, and Israeli military expansion in southern Syria.
The intersection of commercial interests and diplomatic decision-making is a defining feature of current American foreign policy, as evidenced by dropped prosecutions, controversial pardons, and Gulf investments. These cases highlight the influence of personal business relationships on international relations, raising questions about conflict of interest, transparency, and strategic coherence.
American hegemony is weakening due to self-inflicted challenges, including inconsistent trade policies and mass deportations, which erode key competitive advantages. Despite stock market gains in technology, economic weaknesses grow, prompting traditional allies to seek alternative arrangements away from unreliable U.S. governance.
Washington’s December 4th National Security Strategy, which emphasizes “cultivating resistance” in Europe and warns of “civilizational erasure,” has elicited a near-silent response from European governments. This silence reflects a deeper paralysis, as they acknowledge the need for a fundamental transformation of their security architecture but struggle to establish a unified vision for independent action.
