In January 2026, the transatlantic relationship has reached a paradoxical milestone: Europe has finally met Washington’s long-standing demands for increased defense spending, yet the resulting “Strategic Awakening” has triggered deep friction over influence, industrial preference, and the very definition of Western civilization.
The North Atlantic relationship is undergoing a significant transformation due to shifting American strategic priorities from alliance-based internationalism to sphere-of-influence arrangements among major powers. This change, evident in recent policies and diplomatic actions, raises important questions regarding the sustainability of the transatlantic security architecture and its implications for both American and European interests.
The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), released on December 4, is viewed by Timothy Hopper as more of a “farewell statement” to the post-Cold War order rather than a strategic roadmap. It undermines American-led institutions, indicating a voluntary retreat from its role as a global hegemon. This represents a structural dismantling of the mechanisms that supported U.S. primacy. Hopper highlights a contradiction in Washington’s desire for global influence without the willingness to incur the necessary costs.
