As we enter the first week of January 2026, the global landscape is defined by the fallout from the U.S. military operation in Venezuela and a critical “election-year” posture from Washington. The year ahead suggests a shift from the post-war multilateral order toward a more transactional, high-stakes era of “sovereignty-first” politics.
In 2025, China successfully positioned itself as a “stability leader” by exploiting Donald Trump’s transactional foreign policy. While Washington disrupted alliances and institutional norms, Beijing unveiled its Global Governance Initiative, offering the Global South a pluralistic, non-liberal alternative to a fragmenting Western order.
Rising tensions over Gaza and West Bank settlements have forced a reassessment of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. While Spain, Ireland, and Norway’s recognition of Palestine marks a diplomatic rift, the EU remains Israel’s largest trading partner. Future cooperation faces a deadlock between legal obligations to the ICJ and internal opposition from pro-Israel members like Germany and Hungary.
Three key geopolitical events in 2025 have shifted Europe’s role from an aspiring strategic player to a subordinate partner reliant on external powers. The military defeat in Ukraine, technological dependence on China, and economic capitulation to the United States expose deep structural vulnerabilities that years of integration did not resolve, resulting in Europe’s reduced influence amid increasing global competition.
American hegemony is weakening due to self-inflicted challenges, including inconsistent trade policies and mass deportations, which erode key competitive advantages. Despite stock market gains in technology, economic weaknesses grow, prompting traditional allies to seek alternative arrangements away from unreliable U.S. governance.
The Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy signifies a significant break from the post-World War II international order by rejecting the aim of “permanent American domination” and shifting towards a focus on reindustrialization and “America First” policies, moving the U.S. from upholding norms to aggressive commercial competition in the Indo-Pacific.
Emmanuel Macron’s December visit to Beijing signified a strategic shift for France, aiming to convert trade deficits into investment chances while addressing European security issues. The trip highlighted key tensions in European-Chinese relations, with Brussels calling for economic rebalancing and Beijing desiring unrestricted market access amidst rising transatlantic trade disputes.
