Regional Security – think tanks monitor

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Strategic Miscalculation: Why Iranian Regime Change Would Destabilize the Region

February 2, 2026

In early February 2026, the debate over Iranian regime change has moved from theoretical policy papers to an active military and intelligence reality. Following the “Midnight Hammer” strikes of June 2025 and the massive, violent unrest of January 2026, the region stands at a precipice where the collapse of the Islamic Republic is no longer unthinkable, but potentially catastrophic.

A collection of various Iranian newspapers spread out on a wooden table, featuring headlines in Persian and a prominent photograph of Donald Trump on one of the front pages.

Iran’s Battle for Survival is the Arab World’s Fight Too

January 31, 2026

In early 2026, the Middle East has entered what analysts describe as a state of “Exhausted Realignment.” Following the kinetic “12-Day War” between Israel and Iran in June 2025 and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, the region is now caught between a “Maximum Pressure 2.0” campaign from Washington and a desperate diplomatic “hedging” strategy by the Gulf states.

Two men in suits shaking hands indoors with national flags in the background.

Emirati-Israeli Strategic Collaboration Threatens Regional Stability Through Yemen

January 5, 2026

In January 2026, the Middle East is witnessing a historic realignment as the UAE-Israel partnership moves from diplomatic cooperation to operational military presence. This collaboration is centered on the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the strategic fragmentation of Yemen, creating a significant rift between the UAE and its traditional ally, Saudi Arabia.

Four world leaders standing outdoors in front of international flags, holding signed documents.

Abraham Accords Face Critical Test Amid Regional Contradictions

January 5, 2026

In January 2026, the Abraham Accords are entering their most critical phase, as the pragmatic “outside-in” strategy for regional peace faces the dual pressures of Iranian proxy escalation and the internal institutionalization of political Islam.

A large crowd of people walking down a city street, viewed from behind.

Iran’s Economic Crisis and Nationwide Protests

January 4, 2026

The protests that began on December 28, 2025, represent a critical inflection point for Iran, fueled by an economic “perfect storm” that has effectively hollowed out the country’s middle class. As of January 4, 2026, the movement has spread to over 100 locations across 22 provinces, marking it as one of the most geographically expansive challenges to the Islamic Republic since 1979.

Two young men standing outdoors at night; one is wrapped in the flag of Israel and the other is wrapped in the flag of Somaliland.

Strategic Competition in the Horn of Africa: Regional Implications of Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

December 29, 2025

Israel’s landmark recognition of Somaliland in 2025 has ignited a geopolitical firestorm in the Horn of Africa. This strategic move directly challenges Turkey’s massive regional investments and energy projects, turning the Red Sea corridor into a high-stakes arena for great power competition and maritime control.

The exterior of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) headquarters building with lush green landscaping and the "Symbol of Unity" monument.

Indo-Pacific Strategic Geography Challenges US Extended Deterrence Framework

December 25, 2025

The Indo-Pacific has replaced the Cold War-era European theater as the primary arena for American strategic competition, presenting unique geographic and military challenges. As China targets 2027 for regional dominance and control over Taiwan, the U.S. is rapidly adapting its alliance structures with Japan, Australia, and the Philippines to counter advanced missile threats and navigate a complex new era of nuclear deterrence.

A close-up of Donald Trump speaking at a summit table with a "United States" nameplate and a small American flag in front of him

Middle East Strategic Reorientation: From Direct Engagement to Containment

December 17, 2025

The 2025 National Security Strategy marks a significant shift in U.S. policy towards the Middle East, transitioning from extensive political and military involvement to a limited engagement prioritizing energy security and hindering regional adversaries. This change prompts important inquiries regarding the alignment of the new assumptions with the actual dynamics of the region.

A line of Israeli Merkava tanks and a supply truck moving along a paved road next to a barbed-wire border fence

Israeli Military Expansion in Syria Risks Strategic Overextension Despite Initial Advantages

December 17, 2025

Twelve months after Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Israeli forces have carried out over 600 military operations in Syria, averaging nearly two daily. This extensive campaign, alongside the occupation of territories beyond the 1974 disengagement lines, illustrates a classic pattern of overreach, where tactical dominance leads to strategic vulnerability due to commitments across multiple fronts without clear objectives.

A U.S. F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jet flying in the sky, with the Turkish flag blurred in the foreground

Turkey F-35 Sale Proposal Raises Critical Regional Security Questions

December 15, 2025

The Trump administration’s reconsideration of Turkey’s role in the F-35 program has sparked concern among regional security analysts and Israeli defense officials, highlighting issues related to strategic coherence, alliance management, and the long-term stability of the Middle East.

A wide view of a city in Syria, showing areas of destruction contrasted with signs of tentative rebuilding after the fall of Bashar al-Assad

Syria’s Transitional Government: Stabilization Efforts Amid Persistent Fragmentation

December 15, 2025

One year post-Assad regime, Syria’s transitional government led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa grapples with rebuilding state institutions amidst sectarian divisions, economic turmoil, and regional complexities. This anniversary highlights both diplomatic progress and ongoing domestic instability, influencing Syria’s future direction.

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Tag: Regional Security

Strategic Miscalculation: Why Iranian Regime Change Would Destabilize the Region

Iran’s Battle for Survival is the Arab World’s Fight Too

Emirati-Israeli Strategic Collaboration Threatens Regional Stability Through Yemen

Abraham Accords Face Critical Test Amid Regional Contradictions

Strategic Competition in the Horn of Africa: Regional Implications of Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

Indo-Pacific Strategic Geography Challenges US Extended Deterrence Framework

Middle East Strategic Reorientation: From Direct Engagement to Containment

Israeli Military Expansion in Syria Risks Strategic Overextension Despite Initial Advantages

Turkey F-35 Sale Proposal Raises Critical Regional Security Questions

Syria’s Transitional Government: Stabilization Efforts Amid Persistent Fragmentation

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