International law has never been self‑enforcing. It works only when states collectively treat violations as intolerable. Once powerful actors discover that coercive territorial change carries minimal cost, the system shifts from rule‑based restraint to power‑based ordering. For states whose security depends on law rather than force, this shift is existential.
Niger’s 2025 nationalization of the Somair mine and the subsequent contested transport of 1,150 tons of uranium signal a breakdown in international resource governance. By defying arbitration and seeking Russian partnerships, the junta illustrates how strategic minerals now drive a fragmented global order where resource sovereignty outweighs established non-proliferation norms.
In January 2026, the traditional multilateral system founded in 1945 has faced its most direct challenge yet: the formalization of “Boardroom Diplomacy.” Under the newly established Board of Peace (BoP), conflict resolution is shifting from the halls of the United Nations to a private-equity-style governance model that prioritizes commercial viability, “pay-to-play” membership, and technocratic management.
On January 3, 2026, the U.S. executed Operation Absolute Resolve, a massive military strike on Caracas that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores. Trump has since declared a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, signaling a new era of direct intervention.
Rising tensions over Gaza and West Bank settlements have forced a reassessment of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. While Spain, Ireland, and Norway’s recognition of Palestine marks a diplomatic rift, the EU remains Israel’s largest trading partner. Future cooperation faces a deadlock between legal obligations to the ICJ and internal opposition from pro-Israel members like Germany and Hungary.
As the U.S. intensifies its economic pressure with a late-2025 oil blockade, Venezuela is successfully bypassing restrictions through strategic alliances with China, Russia, and Iran. This shift highlights the growing ineffectiveness of unilateral coercive measures, as sanctioned nations build alternative financial networks while the humanitarian toll on ordinary citizens fuels a global pushback against Western financial dominance.
In a critical assessment for Kyiv Post, Bohdan Nahaylo claims that Donald Trump’s approach to the Ukraine war signifies a catastrophic failure of U.S. leadership. He argues that Trump, instead of being a diplomatic strategist, acts as “Putin’s greatest asset,” favoring a dangerous policy of appeasement that undermines long-term American security for a temporary diplomatic gain. Nahaylo suggests that while Ukraine may suffer territorial losses, Trump will ultimately be judged harshly in history for abandoning democratic values and eroding the post-1945 international order.
