In January 2026, the transatlantic relationship has reached a paradoxical milestone: Europe has finally met Washington’s long-standing demands for increased defense spending, yet the resulting “Strategic Awakening” has triggered deep friction over influence, industrial preference, and the very definition of Western civilization.
As we enter the first week of January 2026, the global landscape is defined by the fallout from the U.S. military operation in Venezuela and a critical “election-year” posture from Washington. The year ahead suggests a shift from the post-war multilateral order toward a more transactional, high-stakes era of “sovereignty-first” politics.
In 2025, China successfully positioned itself as a “stability leader” by exploiting Donald Trump’s transactional foreign policy. While Washington disrupted alliances and institutional norms, Beijing unveiled its Global Governance Initiative, offering the Global South a pluralistic, non-liberal alternative to a fragmenting Western order.
Europe faces a severe existential crisis driven by technological and economic stagnation. Since 2008, the EU’s GDP per capita has plummeted from 76.5% to just 50% of US levels. With fragmented regulations and minimal venture capital, Europe risks irreversible decline unless it prioritizes structural innovation over cultural politics.
Three key geopolitical events in 2025 have shifted Europe’s role from an aspiring strategic player to a subordinate partner reliant on external powers. The military defeat in Ukraine, technological dependence on China, and economic capitulation to the United States expose deep structural vulnerabilities that years of integration did not resolve, resulting in Europe’s reduced influence amid increasing global competition.
The North Atlantic relationship is undergoing a significant transformation due to shifting American strategic priorities from alliance-based internationalism to sphere-of-influence arrangements among major powers. This change, evident in recent policies and diplomatic actions, raises important questions regarding the sustainability of the transatlantic security architecture and its implications for both American and European interests.
The European security landscape has transformed dramatically since October 2023, with a new, less visible front emerging within the EU. As attention is focused on the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, intelligence assessments reveal that Europe has become a logistical and operational theater for terrorist organizations. This shift signifies a hybrid threat infrastructure, blurring the lines between political activism, illicit finance, and paramilitary planning. Security services in Western Europe are increasingly alarmed by a “shadow war,” where charitable networks and student movements may unwittingly support groups like Hamas in establishing their presence in the West.
Washington’s December 4th National Security Strategy, which emphasizes “cultivating resistance” in Europe and warns of “civilizational erasure,” has elicited a near-silent response from European governments. This silence reflects a deeper paralysis, as they acknowledge the need for a fundamental transformation of their security architecture but struggle to establish a unified vision for independent action.
Seven weeks into Gaza’s ceasefire, significant disagreements exist between Washington and European capitals regarding post-conflict plans. This divide could jeopardize not only Gaza’s humanitarian situation but also the credibility of Western coordination on global crises.
The December 5, 2025 release of the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy signifies a significant shift in transatlantic relations, explicitly showcasing American antagonism toward its historical democratic allies. The document goes beyond conventional policy disputes, exposing a deep-seated hostility toward European sovereignty, democratic governance, and territorial integrity.
