Trump’s Iran war has triggered oil shocks, inflation pressure, and market turmoil, briefly lifting the dollar while undermining trust in the system behind it. Supply‑chain hits, Fed turmoil, and sanctions whiplash deepen global doubts. China, Russia, and energy importers are accelerating moves away from dollar dependence — a shift the crisis may harden.
The newest research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York confirms what every serious economist already knew: tariffs function as a domestic tax, and American households and businesses pay almost all of it. Between early 2024 and late 2025, roughly 90% of tariff costs stayed inside the United States, mirroring the pattern from the 2018–2019 trade war.
The protests that began on December 28, 2025, represent a critical inflection point for Iran, fueled by an economic “perfect storm” that has effectively hollowed out the country’s middle class. As of January 4, 2026, the movement has spread to over 100 locations across 22 provinces, marking it as one of the most geographically expansive challenges to the Islamic Republic since 1979.
