Muscat’s talks revealed a fragile diplomatic opening overshadowed by military brinkmanship, deep mistrust, and clashing agendas, leaving the US‑Iran channel open but far from any path toward a real nuclear agreement.
In early 2026, Washington’s “Sheriff of Capitalism” doctrine has formalised a shift from a rules-based global order to one defined by resource nationalism and coercive statecraft. This strategy was punctuated by the dramatic January 3, 2026, capture of Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent tariff war against European allies over the sovereignty of Greenland.
On January 3, 2026, the U.S. executed Operation Absolute Resolve, a massive military strike on Caracas that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores. Trump has since declared a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, signaling a new era of direct intervention.
In 2025, security assessments have highlighted a “paradigm shift” as extremist groups move from passive technology use to the active integration of Generative AI for propaganda, recruitment, and attack planning.
Russia views the U.S. escalation in Venezuela as a strategic opportunity to finalize a “global bargain” on Ukraine. By equating American intervention in its “backyard” with Russian actions in Eurasia, the Kremlin aims to secure a transactional peace that formalizes its influence over the ex-Soviet neighborhood.
The Mar-a-Lago meeting between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu revealed a deepening power imbalance, with Trump prioritizing his own “Peace Blueprint” over Israeli strategic demands. While Netanyahu failed to secure a green light for Iran strikes or block Turkish involvement in Gaza, he signaled submission by awarding Trump the 2026 Israel Prize.
As the Trump administration revives the Monroe Doctrine to pressure Caracas, Beijing’s influence in Latin America faces a critical test. Despite condemning U.S. “bullying,” China’s response remains purely symbolic, revealing its unwillingness to militarily defend Venezuela and highlighting the stark reality of American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere.
In a major shift toward “business-oriented diplomacy,” President Trump has appointed Detroit entrepreneur Mark Savaya as the U.S. Special Envoy to Iraq. A Chaldean-American with deep regional ties but no traditional diplomatic background, Savaya is tasked with stabilizing Iraq’s economy and curbing Iranian influence. His mission—focused on disarming militias and opening Iraqi oil and energy markets—signals a pragmatic, deal-driven era for U.S.-Iraq relations that prioritizes economic sovereignty over conventional foreign policy.
The decline of unipolar authority is now evident, particularly highlighted by the US’s absence from the G20 Summit in South Africa. For years, global diplomacy relied on American leadership to resolve crises. However, the situation in Gaza and the West’s isolation at major multilateral events in late 2025 indicate that this era of singular influence is over.
